Tragically Hip: The most Canadian band in the world

Image copyright
Getty Images

When Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau paid tearful tribute to Tragically Hip frontman Gord Downie after his death from brain cancer, he led a nation in mourning for a unique band of home-grown heroes, writes Jordan Michael Smith.

Few rock bands are publicly mourned by the premier and other high-level politicians, comedians and actors, alongside the country’s most prominent musicians.

But the Hip, as they are known, are not ordinary musicians to Canadians. Rather, more than any other artist, they have reflected the sense of what it’s like to love and live in a beautiful, overlooked country.

To understand why the Hip resonates, it’s essential to understand Canada’s place in the world. From Confederation in 1867 to the end of World War II in 1945, the country lived in the shadow of Great Britain.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionJustin Trudeau: “We lost one of the very best of us”

After the United States became the dominant world power, Canada became dwarfed by America.

“Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant,” Mr Trudeau’s father, former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, told Americans in 1969.

“No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”

Image copyright

Image caption

A gig in London’s Trafalgar Square for Canada Day

American power is overwhelming, and Canada struggles to maintain a distinct identity in the face of a colossus.

No part of the world escapes American culture – its music, movies, television, and fashion is embraced by all parts of the globe.

Canada has fewer resources than most countries to preserve a separate national culture, being relatively young, small in population, and isolated geographically.

Laws exist mandating that broadcasters feature Canadian-created content, but most culture consumed in Canada is American nonetheless.

Even worse, many of the most talented and popular artists and intellectuals migrate to the US, unable to resist its mammoth market and influence.

Most of the Canadian-born entertainers and thinkers best-known to the world – from Justin Bieber to Ryan Reynolds to Frank Gehry – live in America.

Neil Young, Joni Mitchell, and Celine Dion all moved south of the border – the Canadian border – to achieve fame. Even Alice Munro, who won the 2013 Nobel Prize for her short stories about small-town Ontario, attracted attention through the New Yorker magazine.

Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Ryan Reynolds, Celine Dion and Justin Bieber were born in Canada but now live and work in America

The Hip never penetrated American consciousness, conversely. Nine of their albums have reached number one on the music charts in Canada; they have never broken even the top 100 in the US.

They are even more obscure internationally. As a result, the band is like a secret handshake for Canadians, a way to establish an exclusive commonality among anyone between the ages of roughly 15 and 45.

It helped that the Hip never seemed to care much about becoming worldwide superstars. They appeared once on Saturday Night Live – introduced by fellow Canadian Dan Ackroyd -and toured the US many times.

But their base was always in Canada and they never left home for long periods of time.

“[Interviewers] always ask us about our success or lack of success in the States, which I find absurd,” Downie once complained. “While that is a story of the band, there are so many other stories.”

What’s more, the Hip mined and reflected Canadian mythology in their lyrics. Songs frequently have references to hockey, geography, history, and culture that are recognisable to Canadians but unknown to outsiders.

One of the band’s best-known songs, Courage, is subtitled “For Hugh MacLennan”, a mid-20th Century Canadian novelist.

Another, Bobcaygeon, name-checks Toronto and is named after a picturesque, tiny town in Ontario. Downie sings in one song of Jacques Cartier, the French explorer who named Canada. He even mentions the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation in another tune.

The Hip treat their country the way Bob Dylan treats America: as a source of endless poetic fascination and mystery. And as with Bruce Springsteen, the band became a cherished national symbol, even if only to itself in this case.

Lyrics aside, however, the Hip are fully American-derived. That reality is telling – it is difficult for even nationalist artists to avoid US impact, an inescapable closeness that breeds resentment alongside affection. The Hip play rock n’ roll, after all, an art form that originated not in Montreal and Vancouver but in Memphis and Chicago.

Image copyright

Image caption

Gord Downie was a gifted lyricist, dubbed Canada’s unofficial poet laureate

Their music is a combination of bar bands from the 1960s, stadium rock from the 1970s, and college rock of the 1980s. What’s original came from Downie, who would interrupt his Canadiana-saturated lines with bizarre stories about whale tanks and double suicides.

But originality is not the point. Cultural artefacts do not have to be artistically revolutionary to be meaningful. And there is no doubt about the Hip’s meaning to millions of Canadians.

In the cassette culture of the 1980s and 1990s, the group’s shows were heavily bootlegged, with tapes of their concerts circulating among fans and records stores in the tradition of the Grateful Dead.

They have sold more albums in Canada than global powerhouses like U2, and retail chains used to open stories at midnight when Hip albums were released to offer fans instant access to the new music.

In 2013, Canada Post even released a stamp with a photo of the band.

Asked Downie in one song: “What’s a windswept face, the elusive presence of the sun, to the hard Canadian?”

Canadians know the answer, even if nobody else does.

Subscribe to the BBC News Magazine’s email newsletter to get articles sent to your inbox.

Letter from Africa: Why Nigeria is failing teachers and pupils

Image copyright

In our series of letters from African journalists, the editor-in-chief of Nigeria’s Daily Trust newspaper, Mannir Dan Ali, considers why Africa’s most populous country is struggling to educate its children.

Nasir El-Rufai, the governor of Nigeria’s Kaduna State, likes to make headlines.

While receiving a visiting World Bank delegation recently, he revealed that a test given to primary school teachers had elicited startling results.

They had been given questions set for primary four pupils, who are aged 10.

The teachers had been expected to score at least 75%, the governor said.

“But I am sad to announce that 66% of the teachers did not get that.”

He blamed the hiring of unqualified teachers for the problem and promised to put an end to it.

But the state’s teachers’ union secretary, Adamu Ango, has disputed the governor’s claim, calling it cheap media propaganda.

He has challenged him to make the examination paper public and measure the results alongside internationally accepted teaching competency examinations.

Unsurprisingly, teachers in the state are not happy – especially with the frequent tests they are made to take, saying this is the third such test in within a year.

Image copyright

Image caption

Classes tend to be big, with pupils sometimes sitting on the floor

All other test results should be made public, if the governor is to be fair to them, they argue.

And could the governor not also release some of their outstanding allowances unpaid for two years now?

Both sides may be right up to a point.

Teachers are not known to be motivated – and it is not a career path many Nigerians opt for by choice.

Many see it as a stop-gap before getting their dream job.

Mannir Dan Ali:

Image copyright
Mannir Dan Ali

“Recruitment has also become a nightmare for employers who come across graduates unable to string together five correct sentences”

Class sizes are also a big issue.

A teacher friend of mine once invited me to her primary school where class sizes ranged from 90 to 120 plus pupils.

Even the most enthusiastic teacher would have trouble getting the attention of such a class, most of whom are likely to be seated on the floor, winking, pinching and playing pranks – making learning almost impossible.

Politicians also prefer to commission contracts to build classrooms that can be seen from the outside, rather than equipping them or training and motivating the teachers to do their work inside them.

There is also an over emphasis on gaining certificates, even those of doubtful quality.

‘Miracle centres’

So many schools are only keen to churn out students with the required grades on paper but who cannot defend them in practice.

It has also led to the proliferation of what are called “miracle centres” – schools or examination centres where almost everybody is guaranteed a good grade at a price.

A relation who teaches at one publicly funded school told me that thanks to such “miracles”, he has encountered students who have spent 12 years in basic education but who are unable to even copy the answers to exam questions that teachers write up on blackboards for them to copy out.

This explains why in addition to the national exams needed to gain admission to universities, polytechnics and other colleges, these higher education institutes insist on conducting their own separate tests to make sure that all the wonderful marks a candidate professes to have are genuine.

Image copyright

Image caption

Frequent university strikes mean undergraduate courses can take longer than expected

Recruitment has also become a nightmare for employers who come across graduates unable to string together five correct sentences.

With basic education in such a bad state, especially in publicly funded schools, well-off parents have been voting with their money to send their children to private schools.

Indeed the class division in Nigeria is especially glaring in terms of what school one’s child attends.

Student exodus

Meanwhile, there has been an explosion of universities from just two at independence to the current 155.

But frequent strikes have meant that students are never sure how many years it will take them to graduate, even though on paper their course it is for a specified period.

This has prompted a big exodus of students who can afford to go to tertiary institutions in far flung corners of the world.

Those unable to finance fees and other costs in the US, Europe or Asia go closer to home, opting for the Benin Republic, Ghana, Uganda and other African countries.

In fact some of the private universities in Ghana, Benin and Niger were set up by Nigerians eager to cash in on such opportunities.

Since only a fraction of Nigeria’s population can afford to pay the fees for private schools and universities, fixing the public school system remains the only sustainable way for the country to adequately educate its citizen, if only to a basic level.

On the whole, most Nigerians agree that there is a crisis in the education sector – though there is no agreement on the reason why and how best to tackle it.

A shock-and-awe approach like that of the Kaduna governor may grab headlines, but it is unlikely to improve the morale of capable and committed teachers who are the corner stone of any education system.

More from Mannir Dan Ali:

  • What has gone wrong for President Buhari?
  • Should new calls for Biafra worry Nigerians?

Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa, on Instagram at bbcafrica or email

Image copyright

Spain’s hotel chambermaids ‘Las Kellys’ fight for fair pay

Image copyright

Spain’s tourism sector is heading for another bumper year, with last year’s figure of 76 million foreign visitors looking set to be a short-lived record.

But within the industry, some people think their essential work is being seriously underappreciated – chambermaids, women who clean hotel rooms in increasingly precarious conditions and poor pay.

“We are all women. There are virtually no men,” says Ángeles Muñoz, leader of the Madrid branch of Las Kellys, a play on the Spanish words for “the girls who clean” (las que limpian).

While room cleaning has never been a road to riches, Las Kellys argue that a reform to Spain’s labour market in 2012 paved their way to hell, allowing hotels to outsource cleaning services to companies that do not have to respect established industry standards.

In a tourism industry that last year produced earnings of €125bn (£112bn) – 11% of Spain’s economy – hotel room cleaners say they are paid less, prone to more health problems and less respected than ever.

Fear of reprisals

“Without clean rooms, a hotel does not have a product. But we are invisible, despite being 30% of a hotel’s staff,” says Ms Muñoz, who claims to have been blacklisted by two hotel chains for her militancy after 20 years in the job.

“Many chambermaids are from especially vulnerable sectors of society, including immigrants and single mothers. They are frightened to be seen and fear reprisals or losing the pay they are getting.”

  • ‘Tourists go home’: Leftists resist Spain’s influx
  • Boat full of migrants lands on southern Spanish beach

Until 2012, Madrid’s chambermaids on full-time contracts were paid €1,200 a month under a sector-wide collective agreement, Ms Muñoz explains.

But then came reform by Spain’s conservative government that made it legal for hotels to farm out the work to contractors who pay about €800 for shifts that are meant to be six hours long.

Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Chambermaids are cleaning up to 30 rooms a day, according to Las Kellys

“But the girls still have to do the same number of rooms or more, normally 20 per shift. They get no breaks and don’t know when they will be needed again, typically receiving a WhatsApp message saying ‘come in tomorrow’.”

In other parts of Spain, pay is even lower.

‘€1.25 per room’

From Lanzarote, one of the Canary Islands, Las Kellys Myriam Barros says typical wages have slumped from around €1,400 a month to half that amount, with chambermaids cleaning up to 30 rooms a day.

“That can mean girls are getting as little as €1.25 per room, and that’s before tax and deductions.”

As well as a decent wage, Las Kellys want the right to retire before at 67 in recognition of the hard labour and injuries they suffer.

Image caption

Las Kellys try to bring attention to their working conditions at a protest in Fuerteventura

They combine cheery sing-a-long demonstrations with detective work, sending photographs and reports to the labour-standard inspectors where they suspect abuses.

But far from making life easier, standing up for their rights can make chambermaids’ lives harder.

Ms Barros reported being punched by a security guard while demonstrating against the outsourcing of cleaning services outside a hotel in Fuerteventura, another Canary Island, earlier this year.

Cost of complaining

Image caption

Olga Romero says she was punished for trying to improve conditions

Olga Romero believes that being a Kelly cost her her job as a temporary chambermaid at a tourist apartment complex in Las Palmas, Gran Canaria.

“I was informing the other girls about Las Kellys and they called me in and said I was fired,” the 34-year-old single mother says.

Ms Romero was not surprised. “First they tried intimidation, doing things like giving me more work to do. Then they started calling me in on my days off saying that I had left work undone.”

But Las Kellys reported the contractor to officials in the Canary Islands. The BBC has seen letters from the the labour-standard inspectorate, ruling that Ms Romero’s temporary contract and those of the rest of the staff are fraudulent and that they should be taken on as permanent employees.

Ms Romero says that the company has so far not complied with the ruling.

She says she does not miss a job in which the women have to clean 25 apartments, including kitchens, in a shift that can stretch to 10 hours when it should be six – and all for €916 a month.

“The way things go, chambermaids are only good for three years – it’s so hard. They keep you working at the limit on slave wages, and that way it’s profitable for them.”

The Spanish Confederation of Hotels and Tourist Accommodation (CEHAT) declined to respond to the BBC’s questions with regard to Las Kellys’ demands.

Meliá Hotels International, the hotel chain with the largest share of the Spanish market with 314 establishments in 2016 and more than 80,000 rooms, said it “respected and complied with existing rules, both at the national level and in terms of collective bargaining”.

But one leading figure in Spain’s hotel sector, Antonio Catalán, the president of AC Hotels by Marriott, is speaking out against what he sees as “a tragedy caused by abuse of labour laws”.

“The sector is going well and doesn’t need to do this,” he says, adding that company does not outsource cleaning.

“In all of our hotels chambermaids get the going rate according to the sector’s guidelines. If we have to earn a little less by paying properly, then so be it.”

But Ms Muñoz says that in most hotels, complaints about bad conditions are typically met with a blank rejection.

“We are told over and over: that’s the way it is; if you don’t like it, there’s the door. Employers know that with Spain’s unemployment, there are people waiting.

“Many of us have had to take tranquilisers for stress. One woman I know says she has to get to work half an hour early to make sure she gets a mop. Otherwise, they run out and you are told to scrub floors on your knees.”

Ugg: The battle over an iconic Australian boot

Image caption

Australian boot manufacturer Eddie Oygur is fighting a US legal challenge

In Australia, the name “ugg” is a generic term for sheepskin boots, often worn locally as slippers. In the US, it is a brand – and big business for one company. This has set off an intriguing legal battle, writes Julian Lorkin.

Tourists walking past Melbourne’s famous Coop’s Shot Tower mall are often drawn into a store, UGG, to buy a pair of iconic Australian boots.

Ugg boots have been described as being as Australian as feta is Greek, but few visitors would be aware that the company behind UGG, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, is in fact from the US.

The business is determined to stop Australian manufacturers from selling the boots worldwide. It is suing Sydney manufacturer Eddie Oygur for millions of dollars for alleged breach of trademark.

“It’s outrageous,” says Eddie Oygur, founder of Australian Leather, who is in the US for the legal battle.

“Ugg is just the name for the boots, and we’ve sold them for nearly a century. Now a US giant has trademarked the name, and wants to stop us.”

Traditional Australian uggs were first made in the Blue Mountains in the 1930s to protect against the cold of winter in New South Wales. With the boots now fashionable overseas, legal tussles have begun.

It’s a battle worth serious money. Revenue at California-based Deckers rose more than 20% to $209m (£161m; A$265m) in the first half of 2017.

Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Sales of the boots have proven to be lucrative

Deckers registered the trademark UGG in 1999, and has since fought several legal battles with rival manufacturers preventing them from selling the boots in the US.

However, courts in Australia have come to the opposite view – ruling that “ugg” is a generic term for boots made from sheepskins with fleece attached. Now, the name ugg cannot be protected in Australia, and anyone is free to sell ugg boots there.

  • Woman finds ‘horny’ snake in ugg boot

Heading to court

In Lidcombe, a suburb of Sydney, Australian Leather has a workforce of 40, and makes about 50,000 pairs of ugg boots annually using Australian sheepskins.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Oygur said: “I haven’t been able to export one pair of boots since 2009. It’s terrible. All my customers around the world want Australian-made ugg boots, but Deckers has stopped us from selling worldwide.”

Deckers has instituted legal proceedings against the Sydney business, calling for punitive damages worth millions of dollars and all funds in Australian Leather’s bank accounts be transferred to Deckers. It also wants all of Australian Leather’s ugg boot stock to be delivered across the Pacific to Deckers for destruction.

Deckers claims uggs were created by Australian surfer Brian Smith, who started making the boots in Santa Monica, California, in 1978.

The company declined to talk to the BBC. In a statement, it said that the lawsuit was not directed at sales in Australia, but pertained to Australian Leather’s infringement of its registered trademarks in the US.

“Deckers is confident in its position and looks forward to presenting its case in court,” the statement said.

Image copyright
Nick Xenophon Team

Image caption

Mr Oygur (L) and Australian Senator Nick Xenophon protest against Deckers in the US last week

Mr Oygur has flown to America, where he is fighting not only the lawsuit, but also to overturn the original US trademark so he can sell his boots worldwide. “I’m not just doing this for myself. I’m doing this for the Australian boot industry,” he said.

He claims it costs him A$48 to make a pair of ugg boots, whereas Deckers sells them for A$39. “Some [Deckers] boots are made in China, where I reckon with shipping to Australia it costs just A$30,” he said.

Australian independent Senator Nick Xenophon has even raised the issue in his nation’s parliament.

“This is a battle that is worth fighting,” he said last year. “The French can protect the use of the word ‘champagne’, and the Greeks the use of the word ‘feta’. So surely Australia can protect the use of the word ‘ugg’ for Australian small manufacturers.”

Australia’s consumer watchdog ultimately decided not to take action. However, Mr Xenophon has continued to publicise Mr Oygur’s case, travelling with him to the US to protest outside Deckers’ headquarters last week.

Trading in ‘association’

University of Adelaide branding expert Dean Wilkie has spent a lifetime studying why consumers choose to buy what he calls “country of origin” products. He told the BBC it’s no surprise that Deckers has acted as they have.

“What they are doing is trading on what’s called ‘secondary association’, in this case the Aussie lifestyle,” he said. “They plaster the boots with Australian images, and give consumers a strong country of origin perspective. It portrays a laid-back, yet positive mood, which in turn puts the buyer in a positive frame of mind to buy.”

He said very few buyers even look where boots are made. “Even if they do, we are so numb to buying goods made in China, consumers would just block their mind to it,”, he said.

Image caption

The UGG store owned by Deckers in central Melbourne

Mr Wilkie believes that US consumers also think of Australia as a place for holidays, so buying uggs is like buying a souvenir. “However, secondary association can be copied by competitors and then loses its value, so trademarking is a very smart move as it ensures you are the only company in the market,” he said.

He argues the issue hasn’t received much attention in Australia, because uggs are rarely worn in public down under. “They are a bit daggy, and often used as slippers. Most sales of uggs are to tourists,” he said. “In the US it is seen as classy, just a little bit different, and a little edgy.”

Mr Oygur said he has been forced to retrench employees because of the Deckers dispute.

“We are just a small firm, trying to make ends meet, by making boots as we always have done,” he said.

A date for a decision in the legal battle, which is in its final stage, is still to be set.

Malta journalist Caruana Galizia: Anti-corruption warrior

Image copyright

Image caption

Daphne Caruana Galizia published scathing reports alleging official corruption

The killing of investigative journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia in a car bomb has left Malta in shock.

On one hand, it caused alarm that organised crime and political vendettas may have spiralled out of control. Caruana Galizia, 53, had relentlessly accused various Maltese politicians and other officials of corruption in her popular Running Commentary blog, and had been sued several times.

But her death near her home in Bidnija, a village in northern Malta, on Monday also represented the loss of “one of Malta’s most important, visible, fearless journalists”, in the words of former Home Affairs Minister Louis Galea.

In a career spanning more than 30 years Caruana Galizia was a pioneer of investigative journalism in Malta, said the Malta Independent newspaper.

“She was very reserved, almost shy, but had the strongest of standards on personal integrity, and held herself to those standards,” a close friend of hers, lawyer Andrew Borg Cardona, told the BBC.

‘One-woman Wikileaks’

Born in Sliema on the northeast coast of Malta in 1964, Caruana Galizia grew up in “normal, middle-class” family, says Mr Cardona.

Her father had a lift services business and briefly entered politics as a liberal.

She was a voracious reader and got an archaeology degree from the University of Malta.

Before launching her blog Caruana Galizia was a regular columnist for The Sunday Times of Malta, then for The Malta Independent.

She also wrote and edited lifestyle magazine articles, such as “fluffy food and drink features”, Mr Cardona said.

“She made a living out of that”, he said, adding: “the blog didn’t pay the rent”.

But she became known as one of Malta’s most influential writers, says Herman Grech, Times of Malta online editor. “An impeccable writer and investigative journalist” is how he describes her.

Image copyright

Image caption

Thousands mourned the journalist in a silent, candle-lit vigil near Valletta

Caruana Galizia’s blog mainly attacked ruling Labour Party politicians and their supporters, but sometimes also officials of the centre-right Nationalist Party.

She alleged that the wife of Maltese PM Joseph Muscat was the beneficial owner of a secret Panama company used to channel funds from Azerbaijan’s ruling Aliyev family.

Mr Muscat and his wife vehemently denied any wrongdoing. But after the scandal erupted he called a snap election, which he won in June.

Read more about Malta

  • Malta country profile
  • Is Malta really Europe’s ‘pirate base’ for tax?

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionDebris was strewn over the road and a nearby field

According to the Panama Papers revelations, two of Mr Muscat’s close associates – Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri – were also involved in secret offshore business.

Condemning her death, Mr Muscat said: “Everyone knows Caruana Galizia was a harsh critic of mine, both politically and personally… but nobody can justify this barbaric act in any way”.

“I will not rest until justice is done,” he said.

  • Read more on thePanama Papers

Caruana Galizia also criticised John Dalli, Malta’s former European Commissioner, who was embroiled in a scandal over tobacco industry lobbying and lost his job as EU health policy chief.

The influential Politico website called her a crusading, “one-woman Wikileaks” in her role as a whistle-blower.

In December, Politico wrote that “on a good day, Galizia gets 400,000 readers, more than the combined circulation of the country’s newspapers (Malta’s population is 420,000)”.


The controversy did not end with her death.

Investigators will be looking into reports in Maltese media that she told police two weeks ago that she had received threats.

Opposition leader Adrian Delia – whom Caruana Galizia had also criticised – said her murder represented “the collapse of democracy and freedom of expression”.

“We shall not be silenced,” he added, in a tweet.

Meanwhile one of her three adult sons, Matthew – also an investigative journalist – castigated the police on Facebook, accusing the authorities of negligence for failing to prevent the “assassination”.

He called Malta “a mafia state” where “a culture of impunity has been allowed to flourish by the government”.

He heard the explosion that killed her and has described running to the scene to find “my mother’s body parts all around me”.

As well as her sons, Caruana Galizia is survived by her husband, a lawyer.

‘Islamic State’: Raqqa’s loss seals rapid rise and fall

Image copyright

Abu Anis only realised something unusual was happening when he heard the sound of explosions coming from the old city on the western bank of the Tigris as it runs through Mosul.

“I phoned some friends over there, and they said armed groups had taken over, some of them foreign, some Iraqis,” the computer technician said. “The gunmen told them, ‘We’ve come to get rid of the Iraqi army, and to help you.'”

The following day, the attackers crossed the river and took the other half of the city. The Iraqi army and police, who vastly outnumbered their assailants, broke and fled, officers first, many of the soldiers stripping off their uniforms as they joined a flood of panicked civilians.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionVideo footage from Mosul after its capture by Isis shows militants driving through the streets, June 2014

It was 10 June 2014, and Iraq’s second biggest city, with a population of around two million, had just fallen to the militants of the group then calling itself Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham/the Levant (Isis or Isil).

Four days earlier, black banners streaming, a few hundred of the Sunni militants had crossed the desert border in a cavalcade from their bases in eastern Syria and met little resistance as they moved towards their biggest prize.

Rich dividends were immediate. The Iraqi army, rebuilt, trained and equipped by the Americans since the US-led invasion of 2003, abandoned large quantities of armoured vehicles and advanced weaponry, eagerly seized by the militants. They also reportedly grabbed something like $500m from the Central Bank’s Mosul branch.

“At the beginning, they behaved well,” said Abu Anis. “They took down all the barricades the army had put up between quarters. People liked that. On their checkpoints they were friendly and helpful – ‘Anything you need, we’re here for you.'”

The Mosul honeymoon was to last a few weeks. But just down the road, terrible things were already happening.

As the Iraqi army collapsed throughout the north, the militants moved swiftly down the Tigris river valley. Towns and villages fell like skittles. Within a day they had captured the town of Baiji and its huge oil refinery, and moved on swiftly to seize Saddam Hussein’s old hometown, Tikrit, a Sunni hotbed.

Just outside Tikrit is a big military base, taken over by the Americans in 2003 and renamed Camp Speicher after the first US casualty in the 1991 “Desert Storm” Gulf war against Iraq, a pilot called Scott Speicher, shot down over al-Anbar province in the west.

Exhumation of bodies at Camp Speicher, 2015Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Bodies being exhumed at Camp Speicher, 2015

Camp Speicher, by now full of Iraqi military recruits, was surrounded by the Isis militants and surrendered. The thousands of captives were sorted, the Shia were weeded out, bound, and trucked away to be systematically shot dead in prepared trenches. Around 1,700 are believed to have been massacred in cold blood. The mass graves are still being exhumed.

Far from trying to cover up the atrocity, Isis revelled in it, posting on the internet videos and pictures showing the Shia prisoners being taken away and shot by the black-clad militants.

In terms of exultant cruelty and brutality, worse was not long in coming.

After a pause of just two months, Isis – now rebranded as “Islamic State” (IS) – erupted again, taking over large areas of northern Iraq controlled by the Kurds.

That included the town of Sinjar, mainly populated by the Yazidis, an ancient religious minority regarded by IS as heretics.

Yazidi Protest Against Attacks In IraqImage copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Yazidi women in Germany protest against IS attacks on their community in northern Iraq, 2014

Hundreds of Yazidi men who failed to escape were simply killed. Women and children were separated and taken away as war booty, to be sold and bartered as chattels, and used as sex slaves. Thousands are still missing, enduring that fate.

Deliberately shocking, bloodthirsty exhibitionism reached a climax towards the end of the same month, August 2014.

IS issued a video showing its notorious, London-accented and now late executioner Mohammed Emwazi (sardonically nicknamed “Jihadi John” by former captives) gruesomely beheading American journalist James Foley.

In the following weeks, more American and British journalists and aid workers – Steven Sotloff, David Haines, Alan Henning, and Peter Kassig (who had converted to Islam and changed his name to Abdul Rahman) – appeared being slaughtered in similar, slickly produced videos, replete with propaganda statements and dire warnings.

Murdered Western hostages: From top left clockwise, Steven Sotloff, David Haines, James Foley, Alan Henning, Abdul Rahman Kassig

Image caption

Murdered Western hostages: (From top left clockwise) Steven Sotloff, David Haines, James Foley, Alan Henning, Abdul Rahman (Peter) Kassig

In the space of a few months, IS had blasted its way from obscurity on to the centre of the world stage. Almost overnight, it became a household word.

Seven-and-a-half thousand miles (12,000km) away, then Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott summed up the breathtaking novelty of the horror. It was, he said “medieval barbarism, perpetrated and spread with the most modern of technology”.

IS had arrived, and the world was taking notice. But the men in black did not appear out of the blue. They had been a long time coming.

The theology of murder

The ideological or religious roots of IS and like-minded groups go deep into history, almost to the beginning of Islam itself in the 7th Century AD.

Like Christianity six centuries before it, and Judaism some eight centuries before that, Islam was born into the harsh, tribal world of the Middle East.

“The original texts, the Old Testament and the Koran, reflected primitive tribal Jewish and Arab societies, and the codes they set forth were severe,” writes the historian and author William Polk.

“They aimed, in the Old Testament, at preserving and enhancing tribal cohesion and power and, in the Koran, at destroying the vestiges of pagan belief and practice. Neither early Judaism nor Islam allowed deviation. Both were authoritarian theocracies.”

As history moved on, Islam spread over a vast region, encountering and adjusting to numerous other societies, faiths and cultures. Inevitably in practice it mutated in different ways, often becoming more pragmatic and indulgent, often given second place to the demands of power and politics and temporal rulers.

For hardline Muslim traditionalists this amounted to deviationism, and from early on, there was a clash of ideas in which those arguing for a strict return to the “purity” of the early days of Islam often paid a price.

The eminent scholar Ahmad ibn Hanbal (780-855), who founded one of the main schools of Sunni Islamic jurisprudence, was jailed and once flogged unconscious in a dispute with the Abbasid caliph in Baghdad. Nearly five centuries later, another supreme theologian of the same strict orthodox school, Ibn Taymiyya, died in prison in Damascus.

These two men are seen as the spiritual forefathers of later thinkers and movements which became known as “salafist”, advocating a return to the ways of the first Muslim ancestors, the salaf al-salih (righteous ancestors).

They inspired a later figure whose thinking and writings were to have a huge and continuing impact on the region and on the salafist movement, one form of which, Wahhabism, took his name.

Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab was born in 1703 in a small village in the Nejd region in the middle of the Arabian peninsula.

A devout Islamic scholar, he espoused and developed the most puritanical and strict version of what he saw as the original faith, and sought to spread it by entering pacts with the holders of political and military power.

In an early foray in that direction, his first action was to destroy the tomb of Zayd ibn al-Khattab, one of the Companions of the Prophet Muhammad, on the grounds that by the austere doctrine of salafist theology, the veneration of tombs constitutes shirk, the revering of something or someone other than Allah.

But it was in 1744 that Abd al-Wahhab made his crucial alliance with the local ruler, Muhammad ibn Saud. It was a pact whereby Wahhabism provided the spiritual or ideological dimension for Saudi political and military expansion, to the benefit of both.

Passing through several mutations, that dual alliance took over most of the peninsula and has endured to this day, with the House of Saud ruling in sometimes uneasy concert with an ultra-conservative Wahhabi religious establishment.

The entrenchment of Wahhabi salafism in Saudi Arabia – and the billions of petrodollars to which it gained access – provided one of the wellsprings for jihadist militancy in the region in modern times. Jihad means struggle on the path of Allah, which can mean many kinds of personal struggle, but more often is taken to mean waging holy war.

But the man most widely credited, or blamed, for bringing salafism into the 20th Century was the Egyptian thinker Sayyid Qutb. He provided a direct bridge from the thought and heritage of Abd al-Wahhab and his predecessors to a new generation of jihadist militants, leading up to al-Qaeda and all that was to follow.

Sayyid QutbImage copyright
Creative Commons

Image caption

Sayyid Qutb, “the source of all jihadist thought”

Born in a small village in Upper Egypt in 1906, Sayyid Qutb found himself at odds with the way Islam was being taught and managed around him. Far from converting him to the ways of the West, a two-year study period in the US in the late 1940s left him disgusted at what he judged unbridled godless materialism and debauchery, and his fundamentalist Islamic outlook was honed harder.

Back in Egypt, he developed the view that the West was imposing its control directly or indirectly over the region in the wake of the Ottoman Empire’s collapse after World War One, with the collaboration of local rulers who might claim to be Muslims, but who had in fact deviated so far from the right path that they should no longer be considered such.

For Qutb, offensive jihad against both the West and its local agents was the only way for the Muslim world to redeem itself. In essence, this was a kind of takfir – branding another Muslim an apostate or kafir (infidel), making it justified and even obligatory and meritorious to kill him.

Although he was a theorist and intellectual rather than an active jihadist, Qutb was judged dangerously subversive by the Egyptian authorities. He was hanged in 1966 on charges of involvement in a Muslim Brotherhood plot to assassinate the nationalist President, Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Qutb was before his time, but his ideas lived on in the 24 books he wrote, which have been read by tens of millions, and in the personal contact he had with the circles of people like Ayman al-Zawahiri, another Egyptian who is the current al-Qaeda leader.

Another intimate of the al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden said: “Qutb was the one who most affected our generation.” He has also been described as “the source of all jihadist thought”, and “the philosopher of the Islamic revolution”.

The attack on the 9/11Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

9/11: The attackers were influenced by Qutb’s writings

More than 35 years after he was hanged, the official commission of inquiry into al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers in 2001 concluded: “Bin Laden shares Qutb’s stark view, permitting him and his followers to rationalise even unprovoked mass murder as righteous defence of an embattled faith.”

And his influence lingers on today. Summing up the roots of IS and its predecessors, the Iraqi expert on Islamist movements Hisham al-Hashemi said: “They are founded on two things: a takfiri faith based on the writings of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, and as methodology, the way of Sayyid Qutb.”

The theology of militant jihadism was in place. But to flourish, it needed two things – a battlefield, and strategists to shape the battle.

Afghanistan was to provide the opportunity for both.

Rise of al-Qaeda

The Soviet invasion in 1979, and the 10 years of occupation that followed, provided a magnet for would-be jihadists from around the Arab world. Some 35,000 of them flocked to Afghanistan during that period, to join the jihad and help the mainly Islamist Afghan mujahideen guerrillas turn the country into Russia’s Vietnam.

Soviet forces in Afghanistan, 1980Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Soviet forces in Afghanistan, 1980

There is little evidence that the “Afghan Arabs”, as they became known, played a pivotal combat role in driving the Soviets out. But they made a major contribution in setting up support networks in Pakistan, channelling funds from Saudi Arabia and other donors, and funding schools and militant training camps. It was a fantastic opportunity for networking and forging enduring relationships as well as tasting jihad first hand.

Ironically, they found themselves on the same team as the Americans. The CIA’s Operation Cyclone channelled hundreds of millions of dollars through Pakistan to militant Afghan mujahedeen leaders such as Golbuddin Hekmatyar, who associated closely with the Arab jihadists.

It was in Afghanistan that virtually all the major figures in the new jihadist world cut their teeth. They helped shape events there in the aftermath of the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, a period that saw the emergence of al-Qaeda as a vehicle for a wider global jihad, and Afghanistan provided a base for it.

By the time the Taliban took over in 1996, they were virtually in partnership with Osama Bin Laden and his men, and it was from there that al-Qaeda launched its fateful 9/11 attack in 2001.

The formative Afghan experience provided both the combat-hardened salafist jihadist leaders and the strategists who were to play an instrumental role in the emergence of the IS of today.

Most significant was the Jordanian jihadist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who more than anybody else ended up being the direct parent of IS in almost every way.

Abu Musab al-ZarqawiImage copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

A high-school dropout whose prison career began with a sentence for drug and sexual offences, Zarqawi found religion after being sent to classes at a mosque in the Jordanian capital, Amman. He arrived in Pakistan to join jihad in Afghanistan just in time to see the Soviets withdraw in 1989, but stayed on to work with jihadists.

After a stint back in Jordan where he received a 15-year jail sentence on terrorist charges but was later released in a general amnesty, Zarqawi finally met Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in 1999. By all accounts the two al-Qaeda leaders did not take to him. They found him brash and headstrong, and they did not like the many tattoos from his previous life that he had not been able to erase.

But he was charismatic and dynamic, and although he did not join al-Qaeda, they eventually put him in charge of a training camp in Herat, western Afghanistan. It was here that he worked with an ideologue whose radical writings became the scriptures governing subsequent salafist blood-letting: Abu Abdullah al-Muhajir.

“The brutality of beheading is intended, even delightful to God and His Prophet,” wrote Muhajir in his book The Theology of Jihad, more generally referred to as the Theology of Bloodshed. His writings provided religious cover for the most brutal excesses, and also for the killing of Shia as infidels, and their Sunni collaborators as apostates.

The other book that has been seen as the virtual manual – even the Mein Kampf – for IS and its forebears is The Management of Savagery, by Abu Bakr Naji, which appeared on the internet in 2004.

The Management of SavageryImage copyright
Creative commons

Image caption

The Management of Savagery, a virtual manual for jihadists

“We need to massacre and to do just as has been done to Banu Qurayza, so we must adopt a ruthless policy in which hostages are brutally and graphically murdered unless our demands are met,” Naji wrote. He was referring to a Jewish tribe in seventh-century Arabia which reportedly met the same fate at the hands of early Muslims as the Yazidis of Sinjar did nearly 14 centuries later: the men were slaughtered, the women and children enslaved.

Naji’s sanctioning of exemplary brutality was part of a much wider strategy to prepare the way for an Islamic caliphate. Based partly on the lessons of Afghanistan, his book is a detailed blueprint for provoking the West into interventions which would further rally the Muslims to jihad, leading to the ultimate collapse of the enemy.

The scenario is not so fanciful if you consider that the Soviet Union went to pieces barely two years after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Naji is reported to have been killed in a US drone strike in Pakistan’s Waziristan province in 2008.

Iraq fiasco

The fallout from the 9/11 attacks changed things radically for the jihadists in late 2001. The US and allies bombed and invaded Afghanistan, ousting the Taliban, and launching a wider “War on Terror” against al-Qaeda.

Bin Laden went underground, and Zarqawi and others fled. The dispersing militants, fired up, badly needed another battlefield on which to provoke and confront their Western enemies.

Luck was on their side. The Americans and their allies were not long in providing it.

Their invasion of Iraq in the spring of 2003 was, it turned out, entirely unjustified on its own chosen grounds – Saddam Hussein’s alleged production of weapons of mass destruction, and his supposed support for international terrorists, neither of which was true.

Bombardment of Baghdad before the US-led invasion in 2003Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Bombardment of Baghdad before the US-led invasion in 2003

By breaking up every state and security structure and sending thousands of disgruntled Sunni soldiers and officials home, they created precisely the state of “savagery”, or violent chaos, that Abu Bakr Naji envisaged for the jihadists to thrive in.

Iraq was on the way to becoming what US officials came to call the “parent tumour” of the IS presence in the region.

Under Saddam’s tightly-controlled Baath Party regime, the Sunnis enjoyed pride of place over the majority Shia, who have strong ties with their co-religionists across the border in Iran.

The US-led intervention disempowered the Sunnis, creating massive resentment and providing fertile ground for the outside salafist jihadists to take root in.

They were not long in spotting their constituency. Abu Musab Zarqawi moved in, and within a matter of months was organising deadly, brutal and provocative attacks aimed both at Western targets and at the majority Shia community.

Doctrinal differences between the two sects go back to disputes over the succession to the Prophet Muhammad in the early decades of Islam, but conflict between them is generally based on community, history and sectarian politics rather than religion as such.

Setting himself up with a new group called Tawhid wa al-Jihad (Tawhid means declaring the uniqueness of Allah), Zarqawi immediately forged a pragmatic operational alliance with underground cells of the remnants of Saddam’s regime, providing the two main intertwined strands of the Sunni-based insurgency: militant Jihadism, and Iraqi Sunni nationalism with Baathist organisation at its core.

His group claimed responsibility for several deadly attacks in August 2003 that set the pattern for much of what was to come: a suicide truck bomb explosion at the UN headquarters in Baghdad that killed the envoy Sergio Vieira de Mello and 20 of his staff, and a suicide car bomb blast in Najaf which killed the influential Shia ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim and 80 of his followers. The bombers were salafist jihadists, but logistics were reportedly provided by underground Baathists.

A portion of the destroyed UN headquarters at the Canal hotel is shown August 19, 2003 in Baghdad, Iraq. A huge truck bomb ripped through the building killing at least 15 and wounding dozens.Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Zarqawi was behind the deadly 2003 bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad

The following year, Zarqawi himself was believed by the CIA to be the masked killer shown in a video beheading an American hostage, Nicholas Berg, in revenge for the Abu Ghraib prison abuses of Iraqi detainees by members of the US military.

As the battle with the Americans and the new Shia-dominated Iraqi government intensified, Zarqawi finally took the oath of loyalty to Bin Laden, and his group became the official al-Qaeda branch in Iraq.

But they were never really on the same page. Zarqawi’s provocative attacks on Shia mosques and markets, triggering sectarian carnage, and his penchant for publicising graphic brutality, were all in line with the radical teachings he had imbibed. But they drew rebukes from the al-Qaeda leadership, concerned at the impact on Muslim opinion.

Zarqawi paid little heed. His strain of harsh radicalism passed to his successors after he was killed by a US air strike in June 2006 on his hideout north of Baghdad. He was easily identified by the tattoos he had never managed to get rid of.

The direct predecessor of IS emerged just a few months later, with the announcement of the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) as an umbrella bringing the al-Qaeda branch together with other insurgent factions.

But tough times lay ahead. In January 2007, the Americans began “surging” their own troops in Iraq from 132,000 to a peak of 168,000, adopting a much more hands-on approach in mentoring the rebuilt Iraqi army. At the same time, they enticed Sunni tribes in western al-Anbar province to stop supporting the jihadists and join the US-led Coalition-Iraqi government drive to quell the insurgency, which many did, on promises that they would be given jobs and control over their own security.

By the time both the new ISI and al-Qaeda leaders were killed in a US-Iraqi army raid on their hideout in April 2010, the insurgency was at its lowest ebb, pushed back into remote corners of Sunni Iraq.

They were both replaced by one man, about whom very little was publicly known at the time, and not much more since: Ibrahim Awad al-Badri, better known by his nom de guerre, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Six eventful years later, he would be proclaimed Caliph Ibrahim, Commander of the Faithful and leader of the newly declared “Islamic State”.

IS global reach

Territorial takeover

Baghdadi’s career is so shrouded in mist that there are very few elements of it that can be regarded as fact. By all accounts he was born near Samarra, north of Baghdad, so the epithet “Baghdadi” seems to have been adopted to give him a more national image, while “Abu Bakr” evokes the first successor to (and father-in-law of) Prophet Muhammad.

Like the original Abu Bakr, Baghdadi is also reputed to come from the Prophet’s Quraysh clan. That, and his youth – born in 1971 – may have been factors in his selection as leader.

All accounts of his early life agree that he was a quiet, scholarly and devout student of Islam, taking a doctorate at the Islamic University of Baghdad. Some even say he was shy, and a bit of a loner, living for 10 years in a room beside a small Sunni mosque in western Baghdad.

The word “charismatic” has never been attached to him.

Who is the leader of IS?

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Image caption

29 June 2014: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi makes a rare appearance in public

As a youth, Baghdadi had a passion for Koranic recitation and was meticulous in his observance of religious law. His family nicknamed him The Believer because he would chastise his relatives for failing to live up to his stringent standards.

Who is Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi?

What has happened to Baghdadi?

But by the time of the US-led invasion in 2003, he appears to have become involved with a militant Sunni group, heading its Sharia (Islamic law) committee. American troops detained him, and he was reportedly held in the detention centre at Camp Bucca in the south for most of 2004.

Camp Bucca (named after a fireman who died in the 9/11 attacks) housed up to 20,000 inmates and became a university from which many IS and other militant leaders graduated. It gave them an unrivalled opportunity to imbibe and spread radical ideologies and sabotage skills and develop important contacts and networks, all in complete safety, under the noses and protection of their enemies.

Baghdadi would also certainly have met in Camp Bucca many of the ex-Baathist military commanders with whom he was to form such a deadly partnership.

The low-profile, self-effacing Baghdadi rang no alarm bells with the Americans. They released him, having decided he was low-risk.

Photo taken of Camp Bucca in Iraq, taken 2008Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Camp Bucca, 2008: A “university” for future IS leaders

But he went on to work his way steadily up through the insurgent hierarchy, virtually unknown to the Iraqi public.

By the time Baghdadi took over in 2010, the curtains seemed to be coming down for the jihadists in the Iraqi field of “savagery”.

But another one miraculously opened up for them across the border in neighbouring Syria at just the right moment. In the spring of 2011, the outbreak of civil war there offered a promising new arena of struggle and expansion. The majority Sunnis were in revolt against the oppressive regime of Bashar al-Assad, dominated by his Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shia Islam.

Baghdadi sent his men in. By December 2011, deadly car bombs were exploding in Damascus which turned out to be the work of the then shadowy al-Nusra Front. It announced itself as an al-Qaeda affiliate the following month. It was headed by a Syrian jihadist, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani. He had been sent by Baghdadi, but had his own ideas.

Jostling with a huge array of competing rebel groups in Syria, al-Nusra won considerable support on the ground because of its fearless and effective fighting skills, and the flow of funds and foreign fighters that support from al-Qaeda stimulated. It was relatively moderate in its salafist approach, and cultivated local relationships.

Al-Nusra was slipping out of Baghdadi’s control, and he didn’t like it. In April 2013, he tried to rein it back, announcing that al-Nusra was under his command in a new Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (Syria or the Levant). Isis, or Isil, was born.

What’s in a name?

IS flagImage copyright

Image caption

IS flag: Arabic text of the first part of “shahada”, the basic statement of the Islamic faith, and the seal of the Prophet below it

During the short and turbulent period over which it has imposed itself as a major news brand, so-called Islamic State has confused the world with a series of name changes reflecting its mutations and changing aspirations, leaving a situation where there is no universal agreement on how to refer to it.

  • After emerging in Iraq as the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI), its spread to Syria prompted the addition of “and al-Sham”, a word that can mean Damascus, Syria, or the wider Levant
  • Many chose to use the easy acronym Isis, with the “S” standing either for Syria or al-Sham, though the US administration and others opted for Isil (the “l” standing for “Levant”). Both are still widely used though technically outdated
  • In Arabic the same acronym can come out as Daash, sometimes spelled Daesh in English; it has passed into common usage among many Arabs, but is disliked by the organisation itself, which sees it as disrespectful of the “state”; although Daash has no meaning in Arabic, it also has an unpleasant sound to it, which may be why American and Western officialdom often use it
  • After further expansion of territory and ambitions, the movement dropped geographical specificity and called itself simply “the Islamic State”; Much of the world was politically reluctant simply to call it that, for fear of implying legitimacy
  • The BBC and others have generally opted for calling it the “self-styled” or “so-called” Islamic State on first reference, and IS thereafter

But Jawlani rebelled, and renewed his oath of loyalty to al-Qaeda’s global leadership, now under Ayman al-Zawahiri following Bin Laden’s death in 2011. Zawahiri ordered Baghdadi to go back to being just the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) and leave al-Nusra as the al-Qaeda Syria franchise.

It was Baghdadi’s turn to ignore orders from head office.

Before 2013 was out, Isis and al-Nusra were at each other’s throats. Hundreds were killed in vicious internecine clashes which ended with Isis being driven out of most of north-west Syria by al-Nusra and allied Syrian rebel factions. But Isis took over Raqqa, a provincial capital in the north-east, and made it its capital. Many of the foreign jihadists who had joined al-Nusra also went over to Isis, seeing it as tougher and more radical. In early 2014, al-Qaeda formally disowned Isis.

Isis had shaken off the parental shackles. But it had lost a lot of ground, and was bottled up. One of its main slogans, Remaining and Expanding, risked becoming empty. So where next?

Fortune smiled once more. Back in Iraq, conditions had again become ripe for the jihadists. The Americans had gone, since the end of 2011. Sunni areas were again aflame and in revolt, enraged by the sectarian policies of the Shia Prime Minister, Nouri Maliki. Sunnis felt marginalised, oppressed and angry.

Islamic State fighter (ISIS; ISIL) waving a flag while standing on captured government fighter jet in Raqqa, Syria 2015Image copyright

Image caption

An IS fighter waves a flag while standing on a captured government fighter jet in Raqqa, Syria, 2015

When Isis decided to move, it was pushing at an open door. In fact, it had never really left Iraq, just gone into the woodwork. As it swept through Sunni towns, cities and villages with bewildering speed in June 2014, sleeper cells of salafist jihadists and ex-Saddamist militants and other sympathisers broke cover and joined the takeover.

With the capture of Mosul, Isis morphed swiftly into a new mode of being, like a rocket jettisoning its carrier. No longer just a shadowy terrorist group, it was suddenly a jihadist army holding large stretches of territory, ruling millions of people, and not only threatening the Iraqi state, but challenging the entire world.

The change was signalled on 29 June by the proclamation of the “Islamic State”, replacing all previous incarnations, and the establishment of the “caliphate”. A few days later, the newly anointed Caliph Ibrahim, aka Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, made a surprise appearance in Mosul in the pulpit of the historic Grand Mosque of al-Nuri, heavily laden with anti-Crusader associations. He called on the world’s Muslims to rally behind him.

By declaring a caliphate and adopting the generic “Islamic State” title, the organisation was clearly setting its sights far beyond Syria and Iraq. It was going global.

Announcing a caliphate has huge significance and resonance within Islam. While it remains the ideal, Bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders had always shied away from it, for fear of failure. Now Baghdadi was trumping the parent organisation, setting IS up in direct competition with it for the leadership of global jihadism.

A caliphate (khilafa) is the rule or rein of a caliph (khalifa), a word which simply means a successor – primarily of the Prophet Muhammad. Under the first four caliphs who followed after he died in 632, the Islamic Caliphate burst out of Arabia and extended through modern-day Iran to the east, into Libya to the west, and to the Caucasus in the north.

The Umayyad caliphate which followed, based in Damascus, took over almost all of the lands that IS would like to control, including Spain. The Baghdad-based Abbasid caliphate took over in 750 and saw a flowering of science and culture, but found it hard to hold it all together, and Baghdad was sacked by the Mongols in 1258.

Chart showing structure of IS leadership

Emerging from that, the Ottoman Empire, based in Constantinople (Istanbul), stretched almost to Vienna at its peak, and was also a caliphate, though the distinction with empire was often blurred. The caliphate was finally abolished by Ataturk in 1924.

So when Baghdadi was declared Caliph of the Islamic State, it was an act of extraordinary ambition. He was claiming no less than the mantle of the Prophet, and of his followers who carried Islam into vast new realms of conquest and expansion.

For most Islamic scholars and authorities, not to mention Arab and Muslim leaders, such claims from the chief of one violent extremist faction had no legitimacy at all, and there was no great rush to embrace the new caliphate. But the millennial echoes it evoked did strike a chord with some Islamic romantics – and with some like-minded radical groups abroad.

Four months after the proclamation, a group of militants in Libya became the first to join up by pledging allegiance to Baghdadi, followed a month later by the Ansar Beit al-Maqdis jihadist faction in Egypt’s Sinai. IS’s tentacles spread deeper into Africa in March 2015 when Boko Haram in Nigeria took the oath of loyalty. Within a year, IS had branches or affiliates in 11 countries, though it held territory in only five, including Iraq and Syria.

It was in those two core countries that Baghdadi and his followers started implementing their state project on the ground, applying their own harsh vision of Islamic rule.

To the outside world, deprived of direct access to the areas controlled by IS, one of the most obvious and shocking aspects of this was their systematic destruction of ancient cultural and archaeological heritage sites and artefacts.

Use the slider below to compare before and after images

September 2015

August 2015

European Space Imaging, Digital Globe

Temple of Bel before and after its destruction by ISImage copyright
European Space Imaging, Digital Globe, Google

Image caption

Satellite images show Palmyra’s once majestic Temple of Bel before and after its destruction by Islamic State militants

Some of the region’s best-known and most-visited sites were devastated, including the magnificent temples of Bel and Baalshamin at Palmyra in Syria, and the Assyrian cities of Hatra and Nimrud in Iraq.

It wasn’t just famous archaeological sites that came under attack. Christian churches and ancient monasteries, Shia mosques and shrines, and anything depicting figures of any sort were destroyed, and embellishments removed even from Sunni mosques. Barely a month after taking over Mosul, IS demolition squads levelled the 13th Century shrine of the Imam Awn al-Din, which had survived the Mongol invasion.

All of this was absolutely in line with IS’s puritanical vision of Islam, under which any pictorial representation or shrine is revering something other than Allah, and any non-Muslim structures are monuments of idolatry. Even Saudi kings and princes to this day are buried without coffins in unmarked graves.

A video posted to YouTube in 2015 showed destruction of sculpted faces at HatraImage copyright

Image caption

A video posted to YouTube in 2015 showed destruction of sculpted faces at Hatra

By posting videos of many of these acts which the rest of the world saw as criminal cultural vandalism, IS also undoubtedly intended to shock. In that sense, it was the cultural equivalent of beheading aid workers.

And there was a more practical and profitable side to the onslaught on cultural heritage. In highly organised manner, IS’s Treasury Department issued printed permits to loot archaeological sites, and took a percentage of the proceeds.

That was just the tip of the iceberg of a complex structure of governance and control put in place as IS gradually settled into its conquests, penetrating into every aspect of people’s lives in exactly the same way as Saddam Hussein’s intelligence apparatus had done.

Captured documents published by Der Spiegel in 2015 give some idea of the role of ex-Baathist regime men in setting up and running IS in a highly structured and organised way, with much emphasis on intelligence and security.

Residents of Sunni strongholds like Mosul and Falluja in Iraq, and Raqqa in Syria, found that IS operatives already knew almost everything about everybody when they moved in and took over in 2014.

At checkpoints, ID cards were checked against databases on laptops, obtained from government ration or employee registers. Former members of the security forces had to go to specific mosques to “repent”, hand over their weapons and receive a discharge paper.

“At first, all they did was change the preachers in the mosques to people with their own views,” said a Mosul resident who fled a year later.

“But then they began to crack down. Women who had been able to go bare-headed now had to cover up, first with the headscarf and then with the full face-veil. Men have to grow beards and wear short-legged trousers. Cigarettes, hubble-bubble, music and cafes were banned, then satellite TV and mobile phones. Morals police [hisba] vehicles would cruise round, looking for offenders.”

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionCitizen journalists from Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently (RBSS) describe life in the IS-controlled city

A Falluja resident recounted the story of a taxi-driver who had picked up a middle-aged woman not wearing a headscarf. They were stopped at an IS checkpoint, the woman given a veil and allowed to go, while the driver was sent to an Islamic court, and sentenced to two months’ detention and to memorise a portion of the Koran. If you fail to memorise, the sentence is repeated.

“They have courts with judges, officials, records and files, and there are fixed penalties for each crime, it’s not random,” said the Falluja resident, speaking when IS still controlled the city. “Adulterers are stoned to death. Thieves have their hands cut off. Gays are executed by being thrown off high buildings. Informers are shot dead, Shia militia prisoners are beheaded.”

Severed heads on park fences: A diary of life under IS

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionA Raqqa resident describes daily life under so-called Islamic State.

An activist based in Raqqa from a group called Al-Sharqiya 24 has been keeping a diary of what life is like under Islamic State group rule.

Life under ‘Islamic State’: Diaries

IS departments carried the organisation’s grip into every corner of life, including finance, agriculture, education, transport, health, welfare and utilities.

School curricula were overhauled in line with IS precepts, with history rewritten, all images being removed from schoolbooks and English taken off the menu.

“One thing you can say is this,” said the Mosul resident after IS took over. “There is absolutely no corruption, no wasta [knowing the right people and pulling strings]. They are totally convinced they are on the right track.”

An IS map

Image caption

Map, purportedly produced by IS, showing group’s aspirational takeover of all lands historically controlled by caliphates and Ottoman Empire

One story tells a lot about IS and its ways.

As Iraqi security forces were pressing forward in areas around Ramadi in early 2016, civilians were fleeing the battle – and IS fighters, losing the day, were trying to sneak out too.

Two women, running from the combat zone, approached a police checkpoint.

As they were being waved through to safety, one of the women suddenly turned to the police, pointed at the other, and said : “This is not a woman. He’s an IS emir [commander].”

The police investigated, and it was true. The other woman was a man, who had shaved, and put on makeup and women’s clothes. He turned out to be top of the list of wanted local IS commanders.

“When IS arrived, he killed my husband, who was a policeman, raped me, and then took me as his wife,” the woman told the police.

“I put up with him all this time, waiting to avenge my husband and my honour,” she said. “I tricked him into shaving and putting on makeup, then denounced him to the police.”

How does IS treat women?

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionNour is a woman from Raqqa, IS’s former capital inside Syria

“Nour” is a woman from Raqqa, the so-called Islamic State’s (IS) former capital inside Syria. She managed to escape the city and became a refugee in Europe, where she met up with the BBC.

This story is based on her experiences and those of her two sisters, who were still inside the city when it was held by IS.

Taking on the world

Having taken over vast swathes of territory in Iraq with their lightning offensive in June 2014, the militants might have been expected to calm down and consolidate their gains.

But, like a shark that has to keep moving or else it will die, IS barely paused before initiating a new spiral of provocation and reprisals that was predictably to draw it into active conflict with almost all the major world powers.

Gallery of 'Islamic State' leaders wanted by the US

Already, the June offensive had threatened the approaches to Baghdad, prompting the Americans to start bringing in hundreds of military advisers and trainers to see how to help the struggling Iraqi army.

Just two months later, the attack on Kurdish areas in the north triggered US air strikes in defence of the Kurdistan capital, Irbil, and then to help stave off the threat of genocide to the Yazidis. Fourteen other nations were to join the air campaign.

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters drive a truck with a machine gun mounted on the back as they head to the Mosul dam on the Tigris river that they recaptured from Islamic State jihadists on August 17, 2014Image copyright

Image caption

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters head to the Mosul dam (August, 2014 )

Ten days later, IS beheaded James Foley and the others followed, in line with the doctrine of exemplary brutality as punishment, deterrent and provocation. The most shocking was to come some months later, with the burning alive of the downed Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh. Shock intended.

The US-led bombing campaign was extended to Syria in September 2014 after IS besieged the Kurdish-held town of Kobane on the Turkish border. Coalition air strikes turned the tide there. IS lost hundreds of fighters killed at Kobane and elsewhere. More revenge was called for. IS turned abroad.

In the three years following the declaration of the “caliphate” in 2014, at least 150 attacks in 29 countries across the globe were either carried out or inspired by IS, with well over 2,000 victims killed.

The attacks carried the same message of punishment, deterrence and provocation as the hostage beheadings, while also demonstrating IS’s global reach.

At the same time, they carried through the militants’ doctrine of distracting the enemy by setting fires in different locations and making him squander resources on security. For IS, “the enemy” is everybody who does not embrace it. The world is divided into Dawlat al-Islam, the State of Islam, and Dawlat al-Kufr, the State of Unbelief.

The most consequential of these atrocities were the downing of a Russian airliner over Sinai on 31 October 2015 and the Paris attacks on 13 November, provoking both Russia and France to intensify air strikes on IS targets in Syria.

The lone-wolf massacre at a gay club in Orlando, Florida, on 12 June 2016, while apparently inspired rather than organised by IS, would undoubtedly further stiffen the US’s already steely resolve to finish the organisation.

Had IS gone mad? It seemed determined to take on the whole world. It was goading and confronting the Americans, the Russians, and a long list of others. By its own count, it had a mere 40,000 fighters at its command (other estimates went as low as half that).

A woman holds a candle at a memorial for the victims of downed Airbus A321, at the Pulkovo Airport on November 1, 2015 in St. Petersburg, Russia.Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

A memorial to the victims of downed Airbus A321, at Pulkovo Airport in Russia, in November 2015

Could it really challenge the global powers and hope to survive? Or would President Barack Obama and his successor Donald Trump be able to fulfil Mr Obama’s pledge to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the organisation?

Final showdown

If there seemed to be something apocalyptic about IS’s “bring it on” defiance, that’s because there was.

When the organisation first brought out its online magazine – a major showcase and recruitment tool – just a month after the “caliphate” was declared, it was not by chance that it was named Dabiq.

A small town north of Aleppo in Syria, Dabiq is mentioned in a hadith (a reported saying of the Prophet Muhammad) in connection with Armageddon. In IS mythology, it is the scene where a cataclysmic showdown will take place between the Muslims and the infidels, leading to the end of days. Each issue of Dabiq begins with a quote from Abu Musab Zarqawi: “The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heat will continue to intensify – by Allah’s permission – until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq.”

Copies of Dabiq

Image caption

Dabiq – Islamic State’s online magazine

The prospect of taking part in that final glorious climax, achieving martyrdom on the path of Allah and an assured place in paradise, is one of the thoughts inspiring those heeding the IS call to jihad.

That could help explain why the organisation seemed to enjoy an endless supply of recruits willing to blow themselves to pieces in suicide attacks, which it calls “martyrdom-seeking operations” (suicide is forbidden in Islam). Hundreds have died in this way, and they happen virtually daily.

It’s been one of the elements that made IS a formidable fighting force hard to destroy even in strictly military terms.

The Baathist legacy at the core of IS

Saddam Hussein chairs cabinet meeting (January 2001)Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Former Iraqi army officers have helped organise and direct IS

IS is in many respects a project of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath party, but now with a different ideology. Former agents or officers of Saddam Hussein’s regime dominate its leadership… They represent a battle-hardened and state-educated core that would likely endure (as they have done through US occupation and a decade of war) even if the organisation’s middle and lower cadres are decimated.

What made IS so formidable?

The head of security and intelligence for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, Masrour Barzani, tells the story of a frustrated would-be suicide bomber who screamed at his captors: “I was just 10 minutes away from being united with the Prophet Muhammad!”

“They think they’re winners regardless of whether they kill you or they get killed,” says Barzani. “If they kill you, they win a battle. If they get killed, they go to heaven. With people like this, it’s very difficult to deter them from coming at you. So really the only way to defeat them is to eliminate them.”

Probably for the first time in military history since the Japanese kamikaze squadrons of World War Two, suicide bombers are used by IS not only for occasional terrorist spectaculars, but as a standard and common battlefield tactic.

Virtually all IS attacks begin with one or several suicide bombers driving explosives-rigged cars or trucks at the target, softening it up for combat squads to go in. So much so that the “martyrdom-seekers” have been called the organisation’s “air force”, since they serve a similar purpose.

Formidable though that is, IS as a fighting force is much more than a bunch of wild-eyed fanatics eager to blow themselves up. For that, they have Saddam Hussein to thank.

“The core of IS are former Saddam-era army and intelligence officers, particularly from the Republican Guard,” said an international intelligence official. “They are very good at moving their people around, resupply and so on, they’re actually much more effective and efficient than the Iraqi army are. That’s the hand of former military staff officers who know their business.”

“They are very professional,” adds Masrour Barzani. “They use artillery, armoured vehicles, heavy machinery etc, and they are using it very well. They have officers who know conventional war and how to plan, how to attack, how to defend. They really are operating on the level of a very organised conventional force. Otherwise they’d be no more than a terrorist organisation.”

The partnership with the ex-Baathists, going back to Zarqawi’s early days in Iraq, was clearly a vital component in IS success.

But that did not mean its fighters were invincible on the battlefield, even in the early days of stunningly rapid expansion. The Kurds in north-east Syria were fighting IS off with no outside help for a year before anybody noticed. And even now, IS makes what would conventionally be seen as costly mistakes.

10 million people lived under IS in Syria and Iraq

In December 2015, for example, they lost several hundred fighters in one abortive attack east of Mosul alone, and probably 2,500 altogether that month alone. Pentagon officials said coalition air strikes killed some 50,000 IS militants in Iraq and Syria between August 2014 and the end of 2016.

But IS initially seemed to have little difficulty making up the numbers. With a population of perhaps 10 million acquiescent Sunnis to draw on, in Iraq and Syria, most recruiting was done locally. Clearly, had it remained in place, there would soon have been a new generation of young militants drawn from local sources.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionIS’ brainwashing of children

“I didn’t join out of conviction,” says Bakr Madloul, a 24-year-old bachelor who was arrested in December at his home in a Sunni quarter in southern Baghdad and accused of taking part in deadly IS car bomb attacks on mainly Shia areas, which he admits.

Bakr says he was working as a construction foreman in Kurdistan when IS took over Mosul. He was detained for questioning by Kurdish security, and met a militant in jail who persuaded him to go to Mosul, where he joined up with IS and manned a checkpoint until it was hit by a Coalition air strike.

He was then sent back to his Baghdad suburb to help organise car bombings. The explosives-packed vehicles were sent from outside Baghdad, and his job was to place them where he was told by his controller, usually in crowded streets or markets.

Bakr Madloul pictured during his time as an IS operative

Image caption

Bakr Madloul (left) pictured during his time as an IS operative

“Only one of the five car bombs I handled was driven by a suicide bomber,” he says. “I spoke to him. He was 22 years old, an Iraqi. He believed he would go to paradise when he died. It’s the easiest and quickest way to Heaven. They strongly believe this. They would blow themselves up to get to Heaven. There were older ones in their 30s and 40s.”

“I asked my controllers more than once, ‘Is it OK to kill women and children?’ They would answer, ‘They’re all the same.’ But to me, killing women and children, I didn’t feel at all comfortable about that. But once you’re in, you’re stuck. If you try to leave, they call you a murtadd, an apostate, and they’ll kill you or your family.”

Bakr knows he will almost certainly hang. Since we spoke, he has in fact been given two death sentences. I asked him if he would do the same things over if he had his life again. He laughed.

“Absolutely not. I would get out of Iraq, away from IS, away from the security forces. I took this path without realising the consequences. There is no way back. I see that now.”

Bakr Madloul as a prisoner today

Image caption

Bakr Madloul knows he will probably be executed

But up in Kurdistan, another IS prisoner, Muhannad Ibrahim, has no such regrets.

A 32-year-old from a village near Mosul with a wife and three children, he was a construction worker for a Turkish company when IS took over the city. Two of his older brothers had died fighting the Americans there in 2004 and 2006. He joined IS without hesitation and was commanding a small detachment when he was captured in a battle with the Kurds.

“We were being oppressed by the Shia, they were always insulting and bothering us,” he says. “But that’s not the main motivation, religious conviction is more important. All my family is religious, praise be to Allah. I came to IS through my faith and religious principles.”

“If I had my time over again, I would take the same path, the same choices. Because I am convinced by this thing, I have to go to the end. Either I am killed, or Allah will decree some other fate for me.”

Muhannad Ibrahim

Image caption

Captured IS fighter Muhannad Ibrahim is unrepentant

Rising to the challenge

Just as the 9/11 Twin Towers atrocity in 2001 had left the US and its allies with no alternative but to strike back with extreme force, the challenge mounted by IS through its numerous provocative outrages in the region and around the world could not be ignored – nor was it meant to be.

But rooting out the militants from Iraq and Syria was always going to be much more complex than the campaign unleashed more than a decade earlier against al-Qaeda and its Taliban hosts in Afghanistan.

There was never any real question of a wholesale Coalition invasion of either country. Air strikes were one thing, but putting in vast numbers of troops on the ground would be something else.

Syria was embroiled in a bewilderingly complicated civil war. Iraq was also in turmoil. US forces had only pulled out three years earlier. There was no appetite for a repeat of an invasion which was almost universally seen as a disastrous blunder with lasting consequences.

But uprooting the militants could not be done by air power alone. Reliable, motivated partner forces on the ground would be needed. In both countries, they were in short supply.

In Syria, the US and its allies were already engaged with some of the motley array of Syrian rebel groups. But they never amounted to the kind of focused, cohesive forces that the Coalition was looking for – they were fragmented, fractious, increasingly Islamist in tone, and largely bent on overthrowing the Assad regime rather than turning on IS.

In Iraq, the regular armed forces were in disarray after collapsing like a house of cards in the face of the onslaught on Mosul by a few hundred IS militants. Much work would have to be done to weld them into a motivated and competent fighting force.

In both countries it was to the Kurds in the north that the Americans and their Coalition partners first turned as their most hopeful immediate allies.

SDF fighters in Raqqa (16/10/17)Image copyright

Image caption

The Syrian Democratic Forces emerged as a reliable partner for the US in the fight against IS

The Kurdish Peshmerga forces in northern Iraq had a long relationship with the Western Coalition powers. In 2003, US special forces fought alongside them to clear Islamist militants from mountain positions near the Iranian border just before the invasion against Saddam Hussein, in which they were partners.

Humiliated by the loss of vast areas of territory to the lightning IS assault in early August 2014, the Peshmerga needed no encouragement to hit back. Less than two weeks later, with Coalition air support, they recaptured the strategic Mosul dam.

In the months that followed, they slowly clawed back much of the ground they had lost, including Sinjar in November 2015, in operations closely co-ordinated with Coalition air strikes.

But in the rest of Iraq, the picture was much messier. Iraqi government forces were able to halt the IS thrust southwards towards the capital, Baghdad, but made little early progress pushing back into the mainly Sunni areas where the militants had dug in.

It was Iranian-backed Shia militias, whose emergence was consolidated under the IS threat, that made the running in the initial phases of the campaign to oust the militants, driving them out of areas north-east of Baghdad near the Iranian border and pursuing them westwards until the eventual recapture of Saddam Hussein’s hometown Tikrit in the Tigris river valley in March 2015.

“If it weren’t for Iran, the democratic experiment in Iraq would have fallen,” said Hadi al-Ameri, leader of the Iranian-backed Badr Organisation, one of the biggest Shia fighting groups, known as the Hashd al-Shaabi or Popular Mobilisation (PM), that rose in defence of Baghdad and the south.

“Obama was sleeping, and he didn’t wake up until IS was at the gates of Irbil. When they were at the gates of Baghdad, he did nothing. Were it not for Iran’s support, IS would have taken over the whole Gulf, not just Iraq.”

But in the Sunni heartlands of Anbar province to the west of Baghdad the Iraqi state forces were struggling.

In May 2015, IS militants captured the provincial capital, Ramadi. At the same time, they spread their grip in Syria, taking the iconic city of Palmyra (Tadmur) in the desert east of Homs. It was a clear signal that while the organisation may have been dealt some setbacks it was still at the height of its powers and capable of exploiting any weaknesses it found.

But the Americans were quietly busy preparing for the real war on IS. They had poured billions into rebuilding the Iraqi army after 2003, only to see much of it go to pieces under pressure because so much was wrong with its foundations.

Now, putting in several thousand advisers, they focused on training and equipping the key Iraqi special forces – the Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), otherwise known as the Golden Division – that was to play a crucial role spearheading the drive against the militants.

The systematic lashback began with Anbar province and the eventual recapture of Ramadi at the end of 2015 and early 2016, a grinding and costly operation with close Coalition air support. There was huge destruction and the displacement of most of the city’s largely Sunni population. There were also tensions over the deployment of Iranian-backed, mainly Shia militias in core Sunni areas, though they were largely kept out of the city itself.

Pro-government forces patrol Ramadi (27/09/17)Image copyright

Image caption

Pro-government forces patrol Ramadi

The recapture of Ramadi tightened the noose around the even more iconic centre of Sunni sentiment at nearby Falluja, where militants had fought two major battles with the Americans in 2004. Government and PM forces began closing in around the city in early 2016, soon after taking Ramadi.

By now, after a lot of testing and assessing, the Americans and their allies, working closely with local forces, were clearly embarked on a comprehensive strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy” IS wherever it could be found.

The broad lines were spelled out in February 2016 by Lt Gen Sean McFarland, then the commanding general of the Coalition’s Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve.

“The campaign has three objectives: to destroy the ISIL parent tumour in Iraq and Syria by collapsing its power centres in Mosul and Raqqa; two, to combat the emerging metastases of the ISIL tumour worldwide; and three, to protect our nations from attack.”

Next step on the road to Mosul, the battle for Falluja was joined in late May 2016 and took just over a month of assaults, bombardments and air strikes to complete, with civilians again paying a heavy price. IS fighters deployed their full range of battle tactics, with snipers, booby-traps and suicide bombers making advance difficult and dangerous for the attacking forces.

Despite the attrition suffered by the Iraqi forces, especially the elite CTS forces, it was not long before eyes turned to the big prize – Mosul. With President Obama due to bow out early in the new year, the Americans were getting impatient.

In peacetime roughly 10 times the size of either Falluja or indeed the IS “capital” Raqqa, Mosul was never going to be an easy nut to crack. It had fallen to the militants in a matter of hours in 2014. By the time the government and Coalition campaign to dislodge them was finally launched in mid-October 2016, IS had had nearly two-and-a-half years to dig in and prepare its defences.

Inside IS’s ruined ‘capital’

Figures walk through devastated street in Raqqa

There is a moment in the journey into Raqqa when you leave the real world behind. After the bombed-out Samra bridge, any signs of normal life vanish.

Turn right at the shop that once sold gravestones – its owner is long gone – and you are inside the city.

Ahead lies nothing but destruction and grey dust and rubble.

This is a place drained of colour, of life, and of people. In six days inside Raqqa, I didn’t see a single civilian.

The city fit for no-one

Marshalled against a band of militants variously estimated at between 2,000 and 12,000 with a hard core probably closer to 4,000 or 5,000, was a vast assembly of government and auxiliary forces, estimated at around 100,000, counting regular army and federal police units, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, and the Popular Mobilisation, including some Sunni and minority volunteers as well as Shia militias.

It was an epic battle that was to last nine months. Government forces slowly battered their way in around the city through dozens of outlying villages and finally into Mosul’s eastern half, which was declared “liberated” towards the end of January 2017. Then it was on to the western side of the river and the old city, with its dense warren of narrow streets.

The area around the ancient Great Mosque of al-Nuri, where Abu Bakr al-Baghdad had made his only public appearance as the newly-anointed “caliph”, was the last to fall. The mosque was blown up, almost exactly three years after the declaration of the IS “caliphate”. The evidence was that IS itself had destroyed it, rather than let it fall into “infidel” hands. The Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, saw this as “official recognition of defeat” by the militants. It signalled, he said, “the collapse of the IS caliphate and a grand military victory”.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionThe Iraqi military circulated a video it says shows the destruction of Mosul’s Great Mosque of al-Nuri.

It was indeed a monumental achievement, a massive body-blow to the IS state project. The city had been, as a senior Western official in northern Iraq put it, “the beating heart of IS”, in real terms much more important than Raqqa in Syria.

But it came at huge cost. The years of preparation and months of battering that it took to dislodge a few thousand militants stood in stark contrast to the ease with which they had rolled into the city virtually unopposed in June 2014. Some estimates put the number of civilians killed at more than 40,000. At least 1,200 Iraqi security personnel also died in battle. The damage was estimated at $50bn. Hundreds thousands of mainly Sunni inhabitants were displaced, and there were widespread allegations of abuses.

The weeks that followed saw a further rapid erosion of the group’s territorial position in Iraq. By the end of August 2017, it had been driven out of Tal Afar, an important town controlling the main road from Mosul towards Syria. A month later, another long-standing IS pocket in and around the mainly Sunni town of Hawija, west of Kirkuk, was also largely overrun by government and auxiliary forces.

In Iraq, that left IS in control only of the area in and around the town of al-Qaim, on the River Euphrates by the Syrian border in the far west of Anbar province.

Its presence in the country had been very radically degraded. But the organisation was still far from destroyed.

Presentational grey line

Across in Syria, the overall picture by the autumn of 2017 was roughly the same, despite the country’s very different, extremely complex and fast-moving situation.

In 2014 and 2015, IS had substantial holdings in Syria – it looked as though someone had spilled a bottle of black ink on its map. They controlled virtually the whole of Syria’s stretch of the Euphrates, from Albu Kamal on the Iraqi border, up through Deir al-Zour and Raqqa, the Tabqa dam, and on to Jarablus on the border with Turkey, one of several crossings that were lifelines for the militants. They held towns and villages to the east and north of Aleppo (including the near-mythical Dabiq) and other pockets further south, including Palmyra and nearby oilfields.

But this heyday did not last. In Syria, IS found itself facing, not one motley coalition of enemies as in Iraq, but three.

The Americans, despairing of Syrian rebel groups whose interests lay elsewhere, adopted the experienced Syrian Kurdish fighters of the YPG, the Popular Protection Units, as their main on-the-ground partners. They added on as many Arab and minority fighters as they could find to produce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), their favoured vehicle against IS in Syria.

Cruise missile fired from Russian ship (Russian Defence Ministry handout)Image copyright

Image caption

A cruise missile is fired from Russian ship in the Mediterranean Sea (Russian Defence Ministry handout)

This did not go down at all well with the US’s Nato ally Turkey, which sees the YPG and their parent political body, the Democratic Unity Party (PYD), as terrorists because of their affiliation to Turkey’s own Kurdish rebels, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Often seeming to be working at cross-purposes to the Americans, Ankara set up its own coalition from among the Syrian opposition groups it had been backing and facilitating for years.

IS also received attention from a third coalition, grouping Syrian government forces, Iran and Russia. The Russians carried out air strikes against IS positions partly with the same kind of motivation as the Western Coalition – revenge for the downing by IS of the Russian airliner over Sinai in October 2015 – but their real strategic interest was different.

The Russians and Iranians were bent on securing their investment in the Assad regime, helping it restore its authority in the country, and pre-empting any move by the Americans and their allies to block a link-up between eastern Syria and western Iraq that would give Tehran a direct land connection from Iran all the way to Lebanon.

That thought may have been somewhere in Washington’s head, but its primary concern was hitting and destroying IS.

Turkey for its part had a different overriding preoccupation: to prevent the Syrian Kurds from expanding and joining up the areas they controlled along the southern side of the Turkey-Syria border.

Despite these conflicting motivations, for IS the result was the same – pressure on many fronts. The US-backed SDF made the most headway, systematically whittling away IS assets step-by-step, but Turkey and Syrian government forces were also on the march.

As early as September 2014, US air strikes had helped prevent IS taking over the Kurdish-held town of Kobane on the border with Turkey. After that, the SDF were pushing forward. By October 2016, IS had lost all access to the Turkish border, a huge logistical setback – virtually all foreign jihadists bound for both Syria and Iraq had come that way, apart from other advantages.

Smoke rises from a bombed building in Deir al-Zour (13/09/17)Image copyright

Image caption

Smoke rises from a bombed building in Deir al-Zour

The Turkish-backed Syrian rebels also played their part, taking over IS-held areas north and east of Aleppo – including Dabiq, which fell in a mundane enough manner with none of the apocalyptic “burning of the Crusader armies” heralded in IS mythology.

Gradually the militants’ tide receded further and further down the Euphrates valley, with the SDF, backed by perhaps 2,000 US special forces with artillery and air power, doing most of the pushing. By November 2016, the SDF were in a position to launch a campaign to isolate and eventually attack the IS “capital”, Raqqa. The assault on the city itself began in early June 2017.

By then, much of the population and many IS fighters had already fled, with most of the militants heading further downstream to the final major city largely under their control – another provincial capital, Deir al-Zour.

But before the recapture of Raqqa had been completed, Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian government forces were already thrusting towards Deir al-Zour, where a military base and airport had held out against the IS militants for almost three years. To get there, the government forces had recaptured Palmyra (for the second time) in March and pushed eastwards along the road to take Sukhna in August before reaching Deir al-Zour itself in September.

US-backed SDF forces had already bypassed the yet-to-fall Raqqa and moved into oil-rich areas to the east of Deir al-Zour, laying claim to oil and gasfields that would greatly bolster the Kurds’ ambitions to run their own area in the north of the country – or at least strengthen their hand in eventual negotiations with Damascus.

So as 2017 moved into its final months, IS territorial control in Syria seemed to be as doomed as it was in Iraq – bottled up in a small patch straddling the border around al-Qaim in western Iraq and Albu Kamal in Syria. Rooting the militants out from there would not necessarily be a simple task in a fiercely tribal area prone to defying governments.

But to all intents and purposes, the IS dream of administering and expanding a thriving Islamic state in the two countries as the core of a growing global caliphate had crashed in flames.

So had IS been virtually destroyed as well as severely degraded? Was it time to celebrate its demise?

It had certainly been dealt crippling blows in terms of functioning as a territorial state. That project lay in ruins. The administrative structures it had set up had been swept away. Major sources of finance had been cut off – from the oilfields it had controlled, taxes imposed on the millions of Iraqis and Syrians it had ruled, and cash coming in across the border with Turkey. It could no longer attract thousands of foreign jihadists or recruit locals to replace the 60,000 IS fighters the Americans believe have died since the heady days of June 2014.

With virtually all of their urban holdings lost, the militants were shrinking back into the shadows and deserts. Many of their leaders had also been killed, although Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi himself apparently eluded the hunt, issuing a defiant audio statement in September 2017. Among the known dead were Mohammed Emwazi, “Jihadi John”, killed by a drone strike in Syria in late 2015.

But all of this had been long foreseen by the leadership. In May 2016, the man regarded as the organisation’s real Number Two, spokesman and head of external operations Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, made a lengthy statement already foreshadowing the next phase of IS existence.

“You will never be victorious. You will be defeated,” he told the Americans. “Do you think that victory comes by killing one leader or another? That would be a fake victory!”

“Or do you consider defeat to be the loss of a city or the loss of territory? Were we defeated when we lost the cities in Iraq [in 2007-8] and were in the desert without any city or land? And would we be defeated, and you victorious, if you were to take Mosul or Sirte or Raqqa, or even all the cities, and we were to return to our previous situation? Absolutely not! True defeat is the loss of will and desire to fight.

Abu Muhammad al-AdnaniImage copyright

Image caption

Abu Muhammad al-Adnani

Adnani, who as spokesman had announced the birth of “Islamic State” and the caliphate in June 2014, may not have lost the will and desire to fight. But he did lose his life. He was killed by an American air strike near Aleppo in August 2016.

He was right to suggest that the targeted killing of militant leaders has in general had little discernible impact on the course of movements, psychologically important though it may be.

But the Iraqi expert on radical movements, Hisham al-Hashemi, believes the case of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi might be different. The Americans are unlikely to rest until they have killed Baghdadi, not least because of their belief that he personally repeatedly raped an American NGO worker, Kayla Mueller, and then had her killed in early 2015.

“IS’s future depends on Baghdadi,” Hashemi said, speaking at a time when IS still controlled huge swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria.

“If he is killed, it will split up. One part would stay on his track and announce a new caliphate. Another would split off and return to al-Qaeda. Others would turn into gangs following whoever is strongest.”

“The source of his strength is that he brought about an ideological transformation, blending jihadist ideas with Baathist intelligence security methods, enabling him to create this quasi-state organisation.”

Baghdadi’s death might not have such an impact in the new situation. But his special talents could come into their own again should conditions in either or both of those countries, or elsewhere, once again favour a comeback by the militants.

That is not so fanciful, even amid the smoking wreckage of the IS above-ground infrastructure.

In Iraq, the burning Sunni grievances against the Shia-dominated Baghdad government that allowed IS to make its astonishing advances in 2014 have not been seriously addressed. American officials are already referring to the danger of an “AQI-2” emerging – a second al-Qaeda in Iraq. It has happened before.

The wholesale destruction of Sunni towns and cities in the drive against IS and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Sunnis may even have aggravated those grievances, providing fertile ground for militants to infiltrate back.

There is an optimistic argument that the united cross-sectarian effort that it took to drive the militants out may have sown the seeds of a new Iraqi nationalism. But the fact remains that the Sunni community has been crushed, and the Shia majority dominates both politically and through the proliferation of its powerful militias. Political leaderships in Baghdad have signally failed to promote any serious national reconciliation since 2003.

“IS was essentially an Iraqi creation,” said a senior Western intelligence official, speaking shortly before the militants were ousted from Mosul.

“The tragic reality is that at the moment, it is the main Sunni political entity in Iraq. From the West, it’s looked at as a kind of crazed cult. Here in Iraq it represents an important constituency. It represents a massive dissatisfaction, the alienation of a whole sector of the population.”

Putting IS on trial

Nineveh Criminal Court, Qaraqosh

Image caption

Thousands of IS cases are being tried in courts like Nineveh Criminal Court in Qaraqosh (above)

A young man wearing a shabby, brown prisoner’s outfit stands before three black-robed judges in a tiny, provincial courtroom, shaking nervously.

After sipping some water, he confirms his name: Abdullah Hussein. He is accused of fighting for so-called Islamic State (IS).

“The decision of the court has been taken according to articles 2 and 3 of the 2005 Counterterrorism Law,” states the judge. “Death by hanging.”

And then Hussein – who, like many suspects here, was picked up on the Mosul frontline – breaks down crying.

Inside the Iraqi courts sentencing IS suspects to death

Much work remains to be done if that sobering assessment is to be reversed. And Baghdad meanwhile faces multiple challenges that might help tip it back into the state of chaos in which the militants could thrive.

The state’s coffers are empty at a time when the reconstruction bill is estimated conservatively at $100bn. Corruption is endemic. Apart from the Sunni issue, Baghdad politics is in turmoil, with deep rivalries between Shia factions with greater or lesser attachment to Iran. And the threat of secession by the Kurds in the north, after the September 2017 independence referendum, could bring further instability.

The very least that could be expected post-Mosul was an indefinite period of low-level insurgency, with bomb blasts and suicide attacks in different parts of the country, especially aimed, as before, at mainly Shia areas. It was already happening. The US military’s Combating Terrorism Center reported that by mid-2017 there was already an average of 130 insurgent attacks taking place monthly in the “liberated” eastern half of Mosul.

And it was already happening next door in Syria too, with IS carrying out random deadly explosions in Damascus and elsewhere despite its stark loss of territory. Although it was obvious by late 2017 that the Assad government with its Russian and Iranian backers were prevailing, the final pattern of control and governance country-wide remained uncertain.

There were many ways in which further turmoil could ensue, not least the fact that, with US support, Kurdish forces had spread well beyond their own demographic comfort zone, causing huge resentment among some Sunni elements. As in Iraq, many Syrian Sunnis were bound to feel aggrieved by everything that had happened since the civil war broke out in 2011.

And where there were grievances, IS or its successors would surely be there to build on them.

Capitalising on chaos

IS had in any case been busy spreading its bets and developing other territorial possibilities beyond the “parent tumour” of Iraq and Syria.

Libya initially proved the most promising. It had just the kind of failed-state anarchy, the state of “savagery”, that left room for the jihadists to move in, forging alliances with local militants and disgruntled supporters of the overthrown regime of Muammar Gaddafi, just as they had done in Iraq.

IS signalled its arrival there in typical style, issuing a polished video in February 2015 showing a group of 21 bewildered Egyptian Christian workers in orange jumpsuits being beheaded on a Libyan beach, their blood mingling with the waters of the Mediterranean as a warning to the “Crusader” European countries on the other side of the sea that radical Islam was on the way.

The man who voiced that warning was believed to be the IS leader in Libya, an Iraqi called Wissam al-Zubaydi, also known as Abu Nabil. By coincidence, Zubaydi was killed in a US air strike on the same day IS struck in Paris, 13 November 2015.

A Libyan security official at a site used by so-called Islamic State (04/08/17)Image copyright

Image caption

A Libyan security official at a site used by so-called Islamic State near Sirte

The militants took over a big stretch of the coast and the central city of Sirte, which was to Muammar Gaddafi what Tikrit was to Saddam Hussein. Another American air strike in February killed (among nearly 50 other people) Noureddine Chouchane, reputedly an IS figure responsible for the deadly attacks on Western tourists in his native Tunisia.

But the IS presence in Libya soon came under pressure, with militias loyal to the Government of National Accord, which been born out of UN efforts, dislodging the militants from Sirte in the second half of 2016.

But they did not disappear. The Americans launched an air strike on IS elements south of Sirte in October 2017, their first such action in Libya since President Trump took over.

The militants were undoubtedly on the defensive in Libya. But it remained a deeply fragmented country, and its new government far from powerful or universally accepted. There would likely continue to be pockets of chaos there for the jihadists to exploit.

And there was no shortage of other possibilities being actively explored and developed – Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, the Philippines, Nigeria… wherever there were dysfunctional states and angry Muslims, there would be opportunities for IS, competing strongly with a diminished al-Qaeda as a dominant brand in the jihadist market.

Adding the extra risk for the West, that that competition could be another spur for spectacular terrorist attacks which they know are being actively plotted.

Long before IS lost almost all its territorial gains in Iraq and Syria, it was clear that the organisation, while trying its best to hold ground wherever it could, was trying to stay alive and assert itself (“Remaining and Expanding”) in other ways – renewed insurgency in the lost lands, constant propaganda and proselytising on the internet, and above all, a revitalised push to carry out acts of terror in the West, the more shocking the better.

As early as September 2014, just as IS was embarking on its provocative confrontation with the West, spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani urged the movement’s followers in graphic detail to kill the hated infidels.

“If you can kill a disbelieving American or European – especially the spiteful and filthy French – or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other of the unbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be. Smash his head with a rock, slaughter him with a knife, run him over with your car, throw him down from a high place, choke him or poison him.”

In his statement in May 2016, al-Adnani signalled the organisation’s new stress on attacks inside Western countries in response to the drive against it in Iraq and Syria.

“Truly, the smallest act you do in their lands is more beloved to us than the biggest act done here; it is more effective for us and more harmful to them… Know that your targeting those who are called “civilians” is more beloved to us and more effective, as it is more harmful, painful, and a greater deterrent to them.”

Attacks in Europe and elsewhere intensified almost in direct proportion to IS’ loss of terrain in Iraq and Syria. Among the more notable were the truck assault in Nice, France, in July 2016 (at least 86 killed) and a similar attack in Berlin in December (12 killed), the Istanbul nightclub bombing in January 2017 (39 killed), and two vehicle and knife attacks in London in March and June 2017 (15 killed).

The attacks in London broke new ground for IS, and even more so the suicide bomb attack at the Manchester Arena in May 2017 in which more than 20 people died. A van attack in Barcelona in August in which 13 people were killed was also seen as an advance for the militants.

Makeshift memorial for victims of Manchester bombing (25/05/17)Image copyright

Image caption

Twenty-two people were killed in the Manchester bombing in 2017

These kinds of attacks, often carried out by “lone wolves” and involving everyday implements that are impossible to control, were clearly a nightmare for security services.

Their job was made all the more challenging by studies showing that fewer than 20% of “successful” attacks in Europe and North America were carried out by jihadists who had gone to Syria or Iraq, and that most were perpetrated by citizens of the countries under attack.

While IS had managed to plant a small number of activists in the crowds of refugees and asylum seekers besieging the gates of Europe and the West, simply vetting them carefully would obviously not be enough.

Clearly, IS internet messaging was still powerful, resonating among the disaffected, the resentful, the alienated and disempowered.

The Americans, focusing largely on the military defeat of the militants, seemed taken aback by IS’s ability to keep up and even expand the challenge.

“When I consider how much damage we’ve inflicted and they’re still operational, they’re still capable of pulling off things like some of these attacks we’ve seen internationally, we have to conclude that we do not yet fully appreciate the scale or strength of this phenomenon,” said Lt Gen Michael Nagata, one of the top US Special Operations officers, quoted by the Combating Terrorism Center.

“We spend an inordinate amount of time and resources as the United States, but also as our partners, trying to not only defeat ISIS and their control of the physical caliphate, but their virtual space that they own,” added Thomas P Bossert, President Trump’s adviser on homeland security and counter-terrorism adviser.

“They’re proselytizing. It’s troubling.”

Clearly, tackling such a vague, ethereal and pervasive threat was a far cry from the clear-cut task of confronting IS fighters on the battlefield. The threat was not going to go away. Cyber-inspired lone wolf attacks could materialise at almost any time, any place. The price of relative safety would be eternal vigilance.

Battle for minds

The US and its allies were starting to come to grips with the cyber dimension of the challenge – and giving much less priority to the crucial problem of poor governance in the countries whose dysfunctionalities provided opportunities for the radicals to take root.

But there were other parts of IS’ complicated root system that were even harder to get at.

The New York-based security consultancy Soufan Group estimated that more than half of the 27,000 foreign jihadists making their way to Syria and Iraq in the first 18 months of the “Islamic State” were from the Middle East and North Africa.

Clearly, the “Caliphate” had appeal, despite – perhaps in some cases, because of – its graphically publicised brutality. While vowing to degrade and destroy the organisation, President Obama put his finger on the real challenge:

“Ideologies are not defeated with guns, they are defeated by better ideas, a more attractive and more compelling vision,” he said.

The complex art of IS propaganda

IS image - fishing on the EuphratesImage copyright
IS image

On a relatively normal day… there was a total of 50 distinct pieces of propaganda. The photo reports and videos included depictions of an IS offensive in northern Syria and eulogies for the dead in Salahuddin… Overwhelmingly, though, the propagandists were preoccupied with a carefully refined view of ‘normal’ life.

Fishing and ultraviolence

The problem is that when disenchanted people in the region look around them – especially the young, the idealistic, or the hopeless unemployed who have no future – they see scant evidence of “better ideas” or attractive and compelling visions.

They see the ruins of an “Arab Spring” which raised hopes only to dash them cruelly.

The brutal, corrupt dictatorships which it shook have either fragmented into chaos and sectarian and tribal upheaval, like Syria itself, Libya, Yemen and (with Western intervention) Iraq, or the sinister “deep states” of their former regimes came back, even more harshly in the case of Egypt, less so in the case of Tunisia.

While many of the European jihadists may have heeded the call for other reasons, socio-economic factors play an important part in radicalising some of the Arab jihadists, and will continue to do so unless addressed.

Secret lives

Unidentified IS fighter

Image caption

Unidentified IS fighter

Mohammed is giddy with excitement as he films the discovery of three IS fighters on his mobile phone.

“Shoot him,” he shouts, gesturing at one of them.

His nervousness gives him away as the unit’s cook. He’s unarmed, but his fellow soldiers from the Iraqi police special forces – known as the Emergency Response Division – are armed to the teeth and are not taking any chances.

The secret lives of young IS fighters

One of the biggest contingents is from Tunisia, where a detailed survey in the poorest suburbs of the capital Tunis showed clearly that the radicalisation of young people there had far less to do with extreme Islamic ideology as such than it did with unemployment, marginalisation and disillusion after a revolution into which they threw themselves, but which gave them nothing, and left them hopeless.

IS is also filling a desert left by the collapse of all the political ideologies that have stirred Arab idealists over the decades. Many used to travel to the Soviet Union for training and tertiary education, but communism is now seen as a busted flush. Arab socialism and Arab nationalism, which caused such excitement in the 1950s and 1960s, mutated into brutal, corrupt “republics” where sons were groomed to inherit power from their fathers.

Chart showing nationalities of foreign fighters

In this vacuum, IS took up the cause of punishing the West and other outsiders for their actions in the region over the past century:

  • the carve-up by the colonial powers 100 years ago, drawing a border between Iraq and Syria which IS has now erased
  • the creation of Israel under the British mandate for Palestine, and its subsequent unswerving political and financial support by the US
  • Western (and indeed Russian) backing for corrupt and tyrannical Arab regimes
  • the Western invasion and destruction of Iraq on the flimsiest of pretexts, with the death of uncounted thousands of Iraqis
  • the Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo prisoner abuse scandals….

The roots of IS also lie in a crisis within Islam.

“Isil is not Islamic,” said President Obama, echoing statements by many Western leaders that “IS has nothing to do with Islam”.

But it has.

“It is based on Islamic texts that are reinterpreted according to how they see it,” says Ahmad Moussalli, professor of politics at the American University of Beirut. “I don’t say they are not coming out of Islamic tradition, that would be denying facts. But their interpretation is unusual, literal sometimes, very much like the Wahhabis.”

Hisham al-Hashemi, the Iraqi expert on radical groups, agrees.

“Violent extremism in IS and the salafist jihadist groups is justified, indeed blessed, in Islamic law texts relied on by IS and the extremist groups. It’s a crisis of religious discourse, not of a barbaric group. Breaking up the religious discourse and setting it on the right course is more important by far than suppressing the extremist groups militarily.”

Because ancient texts can be interpreted by extremists to cover their worst outrages does not implicate the entire religion, any more than Christianity is defined by the Inquisition, where burning at the stake was a stock penalty.

Extremist ideas remain in the dark, forgotten corners of history unless their time comes. And IS time came, with Afghanistan, Iraq, and everything that followed.

“Salafism is spreading in the world, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Arab countries,” says Prof Moussalli.

He blames the Saudis for stifling the emergence of a moderate, democratic version of Islam, the “alternative Islamic discourse” to salafism that President Obama wanted to see.

“A moderate Islamic narrative today is a Muslim Brotherhood narrative, which has been destroyed by the Gulf states supporting the military coup in Egypt,” says Prof Moussalli, referring to the Egyptian military’s ousting of the elected President Mohammed Morsi, a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure, in July 2013.

“We lost that opportunity with Egypt. Egypt could have paved the way for real change in the area. But Saudi Arabia stood against it, in a very malicious way, and destroyed the possibility of changing the Arab regimes into more democratic regimes that accept the transfer of power peacefully. They don’t want it.”

Saudi Arabia’s ultra-conservative Wahhabi religious establishment and its constant propagation have raised ambiguity over its relations with radical groups abroad. Enemies and critics have accused it of producing the virulent strain of Wahhabism that inspires the extremists, and even of supporting IS and other ultra-salafist groups.

But Jamal Khashoggi, a leading Saudi journalist and writer who spent time in Afghanistan and knew Bin Laden, says that simply is not true

“We are at war with IS, which sees us as corrupt Wahhabis.” he says.

“IS is a form of Wahhabism that has been suppressed here since the 1930s. It resurfaced with the siege of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979 and spread here and there. But Saudi Arabia didn’t back it at all, it saw it as a threat. So it’s true that salafism can turn radical, just as the US right-wing produces some crazy lunatics.”

Hundreds of people died in a two-week siege when extremist salafists took over the Grand Mosque, the holiest place in Islam, in protest at what they saw as the Kingdom’s deviation from the true path.

More recently, Saudi Arabia’s security forces and its Shia minority have in fact been the target of attacks by IS, and the kingdom has executed captured militants. It has an active deradicalisation programme.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionSaudi Arabia’s ‘creative approach’ to deradicalisation

But the Kingdom’s extreme conservatism, its distaste for democracy, and its custodianship of the shrines in Mecca and Medina to which millions of Muslims make pilgrimage every year, have made it one of the main targets for calls for a hard-to-achieve reformation within Islam as part of the battle to defeat IS and other extremist groups.

The winds of change do now seem to be starting to blow through the desert kingdom, with cautious reforms behind which the young Crown Prince, Muhammad Bin Salman, is seen as the driving force.

Although the 2017 decree allowing women to drive caused a stir, it remains to be seen how deep such changes can go in a country where the grip of the ultra-conservative clergy is still strong, and where official primary schoolbooks still teach that all religions apart from Islam are “false”.

Datapic reads: Islamic state income $600m from extortion and taxation in 2014; $500 overall from oil sales; $45m from kidnap and ransoms - source: Rand Corporation, US Treasury, UN

Changing some of the fundamental interpretations of religion is a monumental undertaking that could take generations. But it cannot come fast enough for a senior Sunni politician in Iraq.

“We must accept the fact that Islam has a crisis,” he says. “IS is not a freak. Look at the roots, the people, the aims. If you don’t deal with the roots, the situation will be much more dangerous. The world has to get rid of IS, but needs a new deal: reformation, in Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, al-Azhar [the ancient seat of Sunni Islamic learning and authority in Cairo].”

“You can’t kill all the Muslims. You need an Islamic reformation. But Saudi and Qatari money has been blotting out the voices so we can’t get anywhere. It’s the curse of the Arab world – too much oil, too much money.”

Sunni Axis v Shia Crescent

The demise of the IS as a “state” straddling Iraq and Syria has huge geo-strategic implications, few of them positive for the US and its regional allies.

While President Trump railed and tweeted against the evil of Iran and its sponsorship of terrorism, Tehran was quietly benefitting from everything the Americans were doing against IS.

They were non-speaking, arms-length partners in the campaign against the militants in Iraq. US air power, training and hardware directly helped the official Iraqi forces. But the Iranian-backed Shia militias played their part in a series of campaigns ending in a victory which greatly expanded their presence. The rise and fall of the IS phenomenon in Iraq left Iran’s influence there stronger than ever.

While the distance between the American and Iranian roles in Syria was even bigger, with Iran on the side of the regime and the US originally backing the rebels, both were fighting IS, and its defeat would ultimately benefit the Assad regime and its Iranian backers. The Americans and their Coalition allies will not be around forever. Iran and its local allies will.

Hadi al-Ameri, who is in charge of the Shia Muslim Badr Brigades, delivers a speech on Russia's military intervention in Syria and on the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Yemen, on October 5, 2015, in the southern Iraqi city of NajaImage copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Hadi al-Ameri, leader of the Badr Organisation, one of the biggest Shia fighting groups

The US had little choice but to do what it did. The superpower could not allow itself to be goaded and provoked with impunity.

But it had earlier opened the floodgates to Iranian influence through a war that was purely elective, a war of choice and ambition rather than necessity: the invasion of Iraq in 2003, launched on pretexts (Saddam Hussein’s possession of weapons of mass destruction and his support for terrorism) that turned out to be totally spurious.

By dismantling the Iraqi state in 2003, the US-led coalition was breaking down the bulwark that had contained Iran, the region’s Shia superpower, seen as a threat by the Saudis and most of their Sunni Gulf partners since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

The empowerment of the majority Shia community in Iraq after 2003 gave Iran unrivalled influence over Iraqi politics. For years, it had been backing anti-Saddam Iraqi Shia factions in exile. Now they came home to rule the roost.

The arrival of the IS threat led to even more Iranian influence, through the arming, training and directing of the burgeoning Iraqi Shia militias.

For Saudi Arabia and its allies, Iranian penetration in Iraq threatens to establish, indeed largely has, a Shia crescent linking Iran, Iraq, Syria under its minority Alawite leadership, and Lebanon dominated by the Iranian-created Shia faction, Hezbollah.

Map showing distribution of Shia Muslims in the Middle East

From the outset of the war in Syria in 2011, the regional Sunni powers – the Saudis and their Gulf partners, and Turkey – backed the Sunni rebels in the hope that the overthrow of Assad would establish Sunni majority rule.

A north-south Sunni axis running from Turkey through Syria to Jordan and Saudi Arabia would split the Shia crescent and foil the Iranian project, as they saw it.

That is essentially what IS did in 2014, when it moved back into Iraq, took Mosul and virtually all the country’s Sunni areas, and established a Sunni entity that straddled the suddenly irrelevant border with Syria, blocking off Shia parts of Iraq from Syria.

Now that Sunni stake through the heart of the Shia crescent has been removed by the military defeat of IS and the failure of the Saudis, Turks and others – all American allies – to bring about regime change in Damascus.

It’s intriguing to wonder what would have happened had IS halted its advances and provocations after the seizure of Mosul in 2014, toned down its rhetoric, perhaps made some local compromises and accommodations.

Map showing distribution of Sunni Muslims in the Middle East

Just after the fall of Mosul, I asked the Iraqi Kurdistan President, Masoud Barzani, whether he could live with his new neighbours.

“You don’t choose your neighbours,” was his reply. But five weeks later, IS attacked and overran his areas, threatening the Kurdistan capital Irbil, and inflicting genocide on the Yazidis.

“Had they not become international terrorists and stayed local terrorists, they could have served the original agenda of dividing the Arab east so there would be no Shia crescent,” says Prof Moussalli.

We may never fully understand why IS did it. Perhaps its virulent strain of Salafism just had to keep pushing outwards: “Remaining and Expanding”.

The Islamic State in its original form has been smashed. But for all the reasons that brought it about, IS and everything it represented will still be around in one form or another for a very long time to come.


Author: Jim Muir

Editor: Raffi Berg

Production: Ben Milne, Susannah Stevens

Graphics: Henry Clarke Price, Alison Trowsdale

All images are subject to copyright

Venezuela: Caracas after the chaos remains stressful

Image copyright

Image caption

While mass anti-government protests have subsided, life in Caracas remains stressful

This year more than most, life in Venezuela has been characterised by chaos.

The recent turmoil has been well documented, from violent protests to tear gas and riot police.

However, now that the demonstrations have ended, a semblance of normal life has begun to return to Caracas.

For many Venezuelan families, “normal life” includes an afternoon at the baseball.

Before the first pitch in the game between Leones of Caracas and the Bravos of Margarita, the stadium rose as one for the national anthem.

It was a rare moment of unity in an otherwise disjointed and polarised country.

Image caption

Going to a baseball game is an escape from everyday problems

“People use baseball to get away from their problems,” says Diego Castillo, part of the commentary team at Unión Radio.

Still, even the national game is not immune to the issues affecting millions of ordinary Venezuelans.

Many tend to avoid the night games, because going home from the stadium after dark is too dangerous.

“This season we’ve also seen much smaller crowds because of the inflation. It’s very expensive for people to come to the games so they watch them at home instead,” Mr Castillo says.

Cost cutting

It is not just the fans who are feeling the pinch.

The league itself is in trouble. With Venezuela’s economy in free-fall, teams now receive fewer gate receipts from the turnstiles each week. Even the state-run energy company, PDVSA, has become a sponsor as the government attempts to keep the league afloat.

Luis Avila, the chairman of Leones del Caracas, says his team is cutting costs everywhere it can think of.

Image caption

Luis Avila says money is scarce at Leones del Caracas

“Hospitality, meals, logistics, transport, hotels, stadium rent,” he reels off a list.

“Our expenses have gone up by 500% or 700% lately.”

Like most CEOs of big Venezuelan businesses, Mr Avila is critical of the policies of the government of Nicolás Maduro and blames it for the economic crisis.

However, Sunday’s regional election has strengthened President Maduro’s hand, even if the opposition is crying foul.

Read: Venezuela socialists win governor seats amid fraud claims

The result raises the spectre of more violence in Venezuela.

During several months of protests, more than 120 people were killed amid pitched battles with riot police.

Through it all, Venezuela’s controversial socialist government remained unbowed and unrepentant, blaming the opposition for creating instability in the country.

Although such intense levels of chaos have passed for now, Caracas is still a very stressful place to live.

When the noise and tension of the capital become too much, many residents head towards what they call “the lungs of the city”, Ávila National Park.

Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

El Ávila National Park offers residents of traffic-choked Caracas an escape

It is a magnificent backdrop which transforms Caracas from a sprawling urban metropolis to one of the most unique cities in Latin America.

In the late afternoons, people walk up the different mountain pathways to breathe fresh air and de-stress.

“This place relaxes me and it’s good to get rid of all those toxic things in the city,” says Mercedes Bermúdez, referring as much to the politics of confrontation in Caracas as its snarled traffic.

Hemmed in by crime

“Caracas has always been stressful, more so with the current social and political climate,” echoes Dr José Manuel Pardo.

“Beyond climbing the Ávila, what else can we do? The crime keeps us hemmed in our homes at night.”

Dr Pardo is in his 60s but his complaint is one that young people in Venezuela often, and quite rightly, make.

Outside a new skate park that has provided at least one safe place for teenagers to hang out, I met Christian and David.

Image caption

Christian and David were born in the year the socialist PSUV party came into power

Image caption

The skate park provides a safe space for teenagers

Both born the year former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez took power, all they have known is the socialist government.

Now 18, they are first time voters, or rather non-voters.

Not only did they not vote, they have decided they would not be casting their ballots in the future either.

But their abstention goes well beyond the generic indifference towards politics of many millennials.

“I don’t believe either side,” says David of the socialist party and the opposition coalition.

“You have one side which obviously doesn’t care about the people. And on the other you have those who just want to stay in power.”

“I’m clear that neither side cares about me or my family or Venezuela at all. It’s just lies.”


According to the National Electoral Council, the government’s margin of victory was just a few thousand votes in some states.

So maybe that political exhaustion made the difference in several places.

More worryingly, though, is the exodus of Venezuelans who have left the country search of better opportunities in recent months.

Whatever their political colours, people are tired of the rampant inflation, scarcity of food and violent crime.

With the government’s grip on power at the state level as strong as it was during the Chávez era, many see no change to their circumstances on the horizon.

Carrie Fisher gave a cow tongue to predatory producer

Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Carrie Fisher hand delivered the “gift” to the producer

Carrie Fisher once gave a Hollywood producer a cow’s tongue after learning he had assaulted her friend.

Heather Ross, who works in the film industry, told Fisher about how the unnamed producer sexually assaulted her in his car.

Fisher reacted by personally delivering the cow tongue in a Tiffany box wrapped in a bow to his office in Los Angeles.

Ross revealed the story on US radio station, 94.9 MixFM in light of the recent Harvey Weinstein allegations.

Ross spoke about how she contacted the producer – who is not Weinstein – to try and be a part of his new project.

After meeting up, she says the producer forced himself on her in his car after making an excuse to pull over, then reached over and climbed on top of her.

Ross told the radio show she managed to push the producer off her, but as she fled, he said: “You’ll never make a movie in my town and get the F out of my car.”

Carrie’s no-nonsense message

When she told Fisher about what had happened, the late Star Wars actress took matters into her own hands.

“About two weeks later, she sent me a message online and said, ‘I just saw [blank] at Sony Studios. I knew he would probably be there, so I went to his office and personally delivered a Tiffany box wrapped with a white bow.'”

Ross continued: “I asked her what was inside and she said, ‘It was a cow tongue from Jerry’s Famous Deli in Westwood with a note that said, if you ever touch my darling Heather or any other woman again, the next delivery will be something of yours in a much smaller box!'”

Ross added that knowing the Star Wars actress had her back had left a lasting impression on her.

“It felt validating to know, OK, first of all, this woman who I love as a friend was not just a fake Hollywood friend. That’s who Carrie Fisher was. She spoke out and she put things out there in your face,” she said.

Fisher, best known for playing Princess Leia in the Star Wars films, died at the age of 60 in December.

Follow us on Facebook, on Twitter @BBCNewsEnts, or on Instagram at bbcnewsents. If you have a story suggestion email [email protected]

Can Nigeria and Cameroon learn any lessons from Catalonia?

Image caption

Some ethnic Igbos feel Nigeria’s central government does not represent their interests

The crisis in Spain’s Catalonia region is being closely watched in Nigeria and Cameroon, where secessionist movements have been stepping up campaigns for independence, as BBC Pidgin editor Adejuwon Soyinka reports.

Many Nigerians and Cameroonians were looking to Spain, hoping it would find a peaceful solution to demands for independence in the Catalan region.

But this changed when violence broke out over the independence referendum held in Catalonia on 1 October in defiance of the Spanish central government and courts.

“What both the campaigners for Biafran and Catalan secession have in common is the heavy-handedness (and empty-headedness) of their federal governments,” wrote political commentator Onyedimmakachukwu Obiukwu.

He hails from the Igbo ethnic group which is at the centre of the campaign to create the breakaway state of Biafra in south-eastern Nigeria.

Just as Spanish police have been accused of using excessive force against Catalans who took part in the disputed vote, Nigeria’s military has been accused by the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob) movement of “invading” the south-east, killing innocent people and raiding the homes of its leader, Nnamdi Kanu, and his father, Eze Israel Kanu.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionBiafran War veterans remember the conflict 50 years on

The raids were condemned as “primitive and cowardly” by another secessionist movement, the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra.

The military has repeatedly defended what it calls Operation Python Dance II – the heavy deployment of troops to the south-east to quell pro-independence protests.

It says it seized weapons during the raid on the home of Mr Kanu senior.

Neighbouring Cameroon has also been hit by calls for independence – this time for the two English-speaking regions in the majority French-speaking country.

Anglophones have been protesting for months, saying they faced marginalisation.

On 1 October, security forces shot dead 17 protesters during clashes in the region, according to Amnesty International.

The authorities even went as far as imposing an internet blackout in the North-West and South-West provinces, which are the two majority English-speaking areas.

Banned as terrorist group

Prior to the independence vote in Catalonia on 1 October, advocates of self-determination in Cameroon and Nigeria had looked up to Spain as a model for what they described as a rancour-free “divorce”.

They were quick to point out that Catalans were after the same thing and the Spanish government had shown restraint in its approach.

This changed to some extent when national police were sent in to disrupt the unofficial independence referendum the regional Catalan government had organised.

However, it is still free to argue its cause.

In Nigeria, the military viewed Ipob as a terrorist group and the authorities got it proscribed as such.

Under new laws it is now an offence bordering on terrorism to be a member of Ipob, or be found with posters, flyers or even clothing with Ipob’s logo or inscription anywhere in Nigeria.

Biafra in brief:

Image caption

Ipob claims these existing states would make up an independent Biafra

  • First republic of Biafra was declared by Nigerian military officer Odumegwu-Ojukwu in 1967
  • He led his mainly ethnic Igbo forces into a deadly three-year civil war that ended in 1970
  • More than one million people lost their lives, mostly because of hunger
  • Decades after Biafra uprising was quelled by the military, secessionist groups have attracted renewed support
  • They feel Nigeria’s central government is not investing in the region
  • But the government says their complaints are not particular to the south-east

‘Nigeria treats us like slaves’

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionThe Biafran war explained

The whereabouts of its leader Nnamdi Kanu is now a subject of controversy – his supporters say the army has detained him but the military authorities have denied this.

Several regional observers, like John Nwodo, head of Ohaneze Ndigbo, a socio-cultural group in south-east Nigeria, have criticised the authorities’ strategy saying it was alienating and “wrong headed.”

He argues that such heavy-handed actions are likely to radicalise the community and give rise to militant groups in the shape of Boko Haram, which continues to wreak havoc in northern Nigeria.

But Information Minister Lai Mohammed counters this argument saying that the government’s operation is based on those exact fears:

“We didn’t want to have another Boko Haram on our hands,” he told BBC Pidgin.

Peaceful protests

One major difference is that Catalan separatists have been elected to run a regional government.

Nigeria has a federal system, designed to ward off demands for independence, but secessionists have not been elected to any of the five Igbo-majority states – whether because of a lack of public support or heavy-handed action by the authorities is a matter of debate.

And with Ipob banned, the group is obviously unable to contest elections.

Both pro- and anti-Catalan independence protests have been held in Spain without major clashes with security forces.

However, in Cameroon and Nigeria, any public protest is immediately quashed, leading to arrests and, in some cases, deaths.

Image copyright

Image caption

Anti-riot police patrol the streets in the Buea in the Anglophone region

Another area of difference is the level of media coverage the separatist movements are getting.

The merits of a proposed Catalan state and the challenges it would face have been part of mainstream debate in Spain.

This is in start contrast to Nigeria and Cameroon where the activities of the secessionist groups have been criminalised and mostly muted from local media coverage.

Better a secessionist in Cameroon than Nigeria?

While Nigerian authorities appear averse to the idea of negotiations with advocates of secession movements, Paul Biya, Cameroon’s president of 35 years and counting, has called for dialogue.

While condemning the violence in the protests, Mr Biya said: “It is not forbidden to voice any concerns in the republic. However, nothing great can be achieved by using verbal excesses, street violence, and defying authority.”

Does this make Cameroon authorities different?

Not according to Wilfred Tassang, Vice Chairman of the Southern Cameroons’ Ambazonian Governing Council, which has been banned by the authorities.

He says such a statement from Mr Biya is just a façade to cover what he described as the government’s atrocities against people from the Anglophone region.

There are fears that if the situation in these countries is not handled carefully, a full-scale armed conflict may be inevitable.

And this appears to be the worry of Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari.

“As a young army officer, I took part from the beginning to the end in our tragic civil war costing about two million lives, resulting in fearful destruction and untold suffering,” he said during his independence day speech on 1 October.

“Those who are agitating for a re-run were not born by 1967 and have no idea of the horrendous consequences of the civil conflict which we went through… Those who were there should tell those who were not there, the consequences of such folly,” the president warned Nigerians.

Kurz and charisma: What propels young leaders to power?

Image copyright

Image caption

“Black is Cool”: Sebastian Kurz (sitting, centre) in a campaign photo in 2011

In Austria they call him “Wunderwuzzi” – meaning “whizzkid” or “hotshot”.

At just 31, the conservative Sebastian Kurz is poised to become Europe’s youngest leader, after giving the Austrian People’s Party a dramatic makeover.

No detail is too small for the ambitious young politician eyeing the summit of political power.

In 2011 Mr Kurz posed on a jeep for a “Black is Cool” party campaign – when black was the party colour. But for this election, in which he emerged the clear winner, he made the party turquoise, in a big rebranding exercise.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionThe spotlight was on Sebastian Kurz in Austria’s general election

The new colour obviously worked. But what else has propelled charismatic young politicians into power in recent years?

Vaulting ambition

Mr Kurz is the latest youngster to take his country’s political establishment by storm and shake it up.

France elected President Emmanuel Macron, just 39, who revolutionised politics by launching a new liberal party, La République En Marche! (LREM). Just weeks after his presidential election triumph came LREM’s clear victory in parliamentary elections.

He is France’s youngest head of state since Napoleon.

In 2014 Italy got its youngest ever prime minister – Matteo Renzi, then aged 39 too. Like Mr Macron, he had never served in parliament, and was a novice in national politics.

Image copyright

Image caption

President Macron (R) spotted a good photo op with Canada’s youthful PM Trudeau at a G7 summit

But little Estonia upstaged even those “Wunderkind” examples. The vaulting political ambition of Taavi Roivas made him prime minister in 2014-2016, and he is still only 38.

Their success proves that voters are looking for much more than experience when they elect politicians. Youth and charisma clearly count for a lot, along with persuasive campaign rhetoric.

You might also like:

Austria set to elect world’s youngest leader

Trudeau brings his toddler to work

Is France already losing its Macron frisson?

Obama’s presidency: Grades A to F

Some fear that in this digital age, dominated by powerful images and social media, style may often triumph over substance in politics.

“They look slick, but do they have the same amount of substance?” asks Kadri Liik, an Estonian political expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

“I sometimes fear what I call a ‘davidcameronisation’ of Estonian politics: politicians who look good, speak well, mean well, but lack true seriousness,” she told the BBC.

She deplored a “tendency to believe that life is all about PR [public relations], performance, speeches and party politics”.

David Cameron’s defeat in the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum was a PR disaster – for a man who had been a PR professional before rising to the top of British politics.

Media-savvy and sporty

Wunderwuzzi’s smart casual image showed he had a shrewd sense that young Austrians were yearning for political change.

Image copyright
Getty Images

Image caption

Matteo Renzi (L) sported a leather jacket, enhancing his youthful image

A penchant for open collars and swept-back hair conveyed a boyish image – not like the decades-old stereotype of Austrian coalition wheeling and dealing by men in grey suits.

Smart casual was also the look of Matteo Renzi. His pose in a white T-shirt and leather jacket led The Guardian to ask if Mr Renzi was modelling himself on “The Fonz”, star of the US hit sitcom Happy Days.

Sophie Gaston, deputy director of the British think-tank Demos, says this new breed of political leaders “share an understanding of the modern forces at play in campaigning – particularly their grasp of digital and social media – and how to harness these to connect directly with voters”.

“This sets them apart from ‘traditional’ political elites in mainstream parties.”

Mr Kurz, Mr Macron and Mr Renzi all rose through established party structures, but managed to convince voters that they were a breath of fresh air, intent on serious reform.

In that respect, Ms Gaston told the BBC, they have connected with many voters’ rejection of the political establishment, especially since the 2008 financial crash.

“They are either seen as untainted by affiliation to this political hegemony or, as in the case of Macron, willing to take risks and challenge political orthodoxy.”

Image copyright

Image caption

Barack Obama projected a sporty image early on – even before becoming president

Their communication skills enabled them to outmanoeuvre far-right and far-left populist parties which, Ms Gaston said, were quick to exploit social media.

Indeed, the far-right Freedom Party in Austria accuses Mr Kurz of stealing its thunder on immigration controls.

Projecting a fit and healthy image is a feature of these leaders’ success.

On the presidential campaign trail in 2008 Barack Obama played basketball in a photo opportunity in Indiana.

And as president he was often seen on the golf course – now something of a cliché for US presidents.

President Macron played wheelchair tennis in June – another memorable photo opportunity.

Image copyright

Many leaders today have been photographed jogging, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a youthful 45.

But Robyn Urback of Canadian national broadcaster CBC complained “we keep falling for Trudeau’s PR”.

It was no accident, she wrote, that his personal photographer snapped him jogging past “a group of kids taking pictures on the boardwalk”. It made for a nice “feel good” picture.

Mr Macron also has a keen eye for image management. Just before his official photo shoot in the Elysee Palace he was filmed obsessively leafing through a book to find just the right page, so that it could be shown open and impressive on his desk.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Media captionBehind the scenes: Mr Macron takes care of the little things…

New rhetoric

We are living in a time of “general dissatisfaction with the status quo of politics”, says Prof Catherine de Vries, a European politics expert at Essex University.

For decades, she told the BBC, ambitious politicians had to work their way up the party ranks – but that is no longer the case.

They do, however, need “extreme drive – it’s not a nine-to-five job”. Youth is an asset, she said, along with vision and a will to change the system.

Matteo Renzi was known as Il Rottamatore (“The Scrapper”) because he fought the centre-left Democratic Party establishment. “I didn’t want to submit to their rules,” he said.

Mr Macron abandoned the Socialists when he realised he could woo a vast number of discontented voters outside the party.

But his popularity has slumped in recent months.

So the acid test of the new leaders is whether they can walk the walk, as well as talk the talk.